This guide will show you how to trade and find winning horses.
The first step is that we only trade handicap races.
Once you found a handicap race, we only focus on the top two horses in the betting.
The qualifying horses must be in the top four of the official ratings.
Our qualifying selection must have been bet more than 15% of its opening price.
The best time to trade is 10 minutes before the off.
Once we have placed our back bet, we use the calculator to find out what our stake will be, in order to profit.
We need to have three things open in order to start the selection process, The Racing Post, Oddschecker and the Profit Lockdown II calculator.
The first thing we need to do is to find handicap races. If we hover over the times of the races, we can see whether they are handicaps or not. We can see here that the 13:50 Yarmouth is a handicap.
Once on the card, we need to click on the odds betting, on the right-hand side of the card. This will sort the horses in the order that they appear in the market. We need to make sure that we focus on the top two in the betting.
From the first two in the betting, we then need to make sure that we only choose horses that have the saddle cloth numbers 1, 2, 3 or 4. This means that they are within the top four of the official ratings.
In this example, we can see that Beachwalk and Oswald meet these two criteria.
Now that we have found these two horses, we need to head over to the market, and look at the next stage of our analysis.
As you can see in the image below, both Beachwalk and Oswald are being backed, as all the odds are in blue.
If we now click on Beachwalk, this will load the horse’s betting history. If we click on All History, we can see what price the horse opened-up at the night before. As we can see, this horse was available at 9/4 the previous evening.
We now need to head over to the calculator, make sure to change the BACK STAKE field to the size stake you want to use. By default it set to £2.00.
We now need to head over to the calculator, and type in the price from the night before. You’ll see in the image below where to enter the price.
You will now see in the image below that 15% of 9/4 is 2.91.
Beachwalk is currently available at the best price 7/4. This is 2.75 in decimal odds. So we can see that Beachwalk is now a qualifying trade. This can now be traded closer to the race.
If you need help with changing fractions into decimals then you can change how OddsChecker displays the odds as per the diagram, below –
Trading Our Selections
Now that we have found our qualifiers, we need to have two things open, Betfair and the Profit Lockdown II calculator. We need to load the market in which our horse will be running at around 10 minutes before the off.
The idea behind this is, that the Exchange market starts reacting to the on-course market. Throughout the day bookies online, and in the shops, have taken a hammering on the qualifiers we have selected. This is why their price has shortened-up by more than 15%. The bookies on-course don't have the same type of liability that the online ones do, this is why the price tends to open-up on the course. Betfair will follow this trend and the price moves out. We want to be on that inflated price, and look to then lay-off as the price shortens up.
We place our back bet on the qualifying horse and place the odds that we got into the calculator. From here we can see at what price, and for how much, we need to lay the horse off in order to profit from the trade. This profit will be the same, or thereabouts, no matter what happens in the race.
You can see in the image above that the back bet has been placed. We need to make sure that this has been matched. Once we have been matched, we then need to place our lay bet into the market. It won't get matched straight away, but with a little bit of patience, this should happen before the off.
Go to the calculator and type in the price that you were matched with on the back bet. In this case it will be 3.8. You’ll see the lay price, and the amount that we need lay at, in order to make a profitable trade.
You can see in the image below that the lay bet has been matched, and no matter what happens, we make a profit.
Download the Excel 2011 and newer worksheet
Download the Excel 2010 and earlier worksheet
Here are answers to some frequently asked questions:
The 10% to trade method is simple. The qualifying horses that we have selected do win around 33% of the time, as they are at the top of the market. With this in mind, we can place a small bet at BSP to profit further.
If you are trading with £20 stakes, then we simply place a £2 bet at BSP. This doesn't affect our trade in any way. If we were to be trading with £100 stakes, we would place £10 bets at BSP and so on.
The idea being is, that as long as we can turn as many profitable trades as possible, we will be making small profits. However, when we get a few winners into the mix as well, we can turn this small profit into something really worth having!
There will be times when the trade does go wrong. This could be for a number of reasons; the horse has sweated-up in the parade ring, or there’s been a jockey change. It could be a change in the going, or another horse has been gambled on. These things are almost impossible to predict, unless we're constantly watching the media, and sat at our computer hour after hour.
There is, however, a way to trade our selections should they go the wrong way. This is completely normal, and to be expected, in any type of trading/betting.
The idea is, that with the 10% to trade method, we have a better chance of coming away with only a small loss.
If our selection does start to drift, we need to make sure that we trade out before the race starts. Do NOT be tempted to let the trade go in running. It might get matched but, in the long run, this will more than likely eat into our longer-term profits.
If our selection starts to drift by more than 15% we need to lay our trade off with the same stake as our back bet. The calculator will show you what price to lay at, and remember it needs to be the same stake, should the horse drift in price. You can see that in the image below:
Having placed the back bet and the horse goes onto drift, we then need to place our lay bet as per the image below:
This means that if the horse doesn’t win the race, we lose nothing on the trade. We will lose our bet at BSP but, with the winning trades, these losses won’t matter.
However, if the horse should go on to win, then we will lose our trade, but the money we make from the BSP part of the trade will mean that we’re either into a small profit/loss, or at breakeven.
The idea is that although we do get losing trades, in the long run, the winning trades will far outweigh the losing ones.
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