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Course Summary: Explain the key elements of the training video

This guide will show you how to trade and find winning horses. 

The first step is that we only trade handicap races. 

Once you found a handicap race, we only focus on the top two horses in the betting. 

The qualifying horses must be in the top four of the official ratings.

Our qualifying selection must have been bet more than 15% of its opening price.

The best time to trade is 10 minutes before the off.

Once we have placed our back bet, we use the calculator to find out what our stake will be, in order to profit.

Selection Process

We need to have three things open in order to start the selection process, The Racing Post, Oddschecker and the Profit Lockdown II calculator.

The first thing we need to do is to find handicap races. If we hover over the times of the races, we can see whether they are handicaps or not. We can see here that the 13:50 Yarmouth is a handicap.



Once on the card, we need to click on the odds betting, on the right-hand side of the card. This will sort the horses in the order that they appear in the market. We need to make sure that we focus on the top two in the betting.



From the first two in the betting, we then need to make sure that we only choose horses that have the saddle cloth numbers 1, 2, 3 or 4. This means that they are within the top four of the official ratings.

In this example, we can see that Beachwalk and Oswald meet these two criteria. 



Now that we have found these two horses, we need to head over to the market, and look at the next stage of our analysis.

As you can see in the image below, both Beachwalk and Oswald are being backed, as all the odds are in blue.



If we now click on Beachwalk, this will load the horse’s betting history. If we click on All History, we can see what price the horse opened-up at the night before. As we can see, this horse was available at 9/4 the previous evening.



We now need to head over to the calculator, make sure to change the BACK STAKE field to the size stake you want to use. By default it set to £2.00. 



We now need to head over to the calculator, and type in the price from the night before. You’ll see in the image below where to enter the price. 



You will now see in the image below that 15% of 9/4 is 2.91.



Beachwalk is currently available at the best price 7/4. This is 2.75 in decimal odds. So we can see that Beachwalk is now a qualifying trade. This can now be traded closer to the race.

If you need help with changing fractions into decimals then you can change how OddsChecker displays the odds as per the diagram, below – 



Trading Our Selections


Now that we have found our qualifiers, we need to have two things open, Betfair and the Profit Lockdown II calculator. We need to load the market in which our horse will be running at around 10 minutes before the off.

The idea behind this is, that the Exchange market starts reacting to the on-course market. Throughout the day bookies online, and in the shops, have taken a hammering on the qualifiers we have selected. This is why their price has shortened-up by more than 15%. The bookies on-course don't have the same type of liability that the online ones do, this is why the price tends to open-up on the course. Betfair will follow this trend and the price moves out. We want to be on that inflated price, and look to then lay-off as the price shortens up. 

We place our back bet on the qualifying horse and place the odds that we got into the calculator. From here we can see at what price, and for how much, we need to lay the horse off in order to profit from the trade. This profit will be the same, or thereabouts, no matter what happens in the race. 



You can see in the image above that the back bet has been placed. We need to make sure that this has been matched. Once we have been matched, we then need to place our lay bet into the market. It won't get matched straight away, but with a little bit of patience, this should happen before the off.

Go to the calculator and type in the price that you were matched with on the back bet. In this case it will be 3.8. You’ll see the lay price, and the amount that we need lay at, in order to make a profitable trade. 



You can see in the image below that the lay bet has been matched, and no matter what happens, we make a profit.


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Downloads/Resources (Click to view or right click to download)

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Download the Excel 2011 and newer worksheet

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Download the Excel 2010 and earlier worksheet

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FAQ

Here are answers to some frequently asked questions:

What is the 10% to trade method?

What if the trade goes wrong?

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