Advice

Profiting From The Shorties

(Last Updated On: June 15, 2015)

Family commitments have restricted me in putting together an in depth stats and trends overview for Royal Ascot. But you won’t have missed anything because with a little bit of searching the main racing sites that produce micro sites for the festivals will have most of the information.

One has to be careful when publishing stats and trends etc as these sites are quick to scream plagiarism, but with the internet as it is now, this information is easily available. But what I have for you here won’t be found in any of the Racing post, Sportinglife, Racing Uk or ATR websites.

Royal Ascot is no different to any other big racing festival that frequent the calendar throughout the year. Every festival has a repetitive theme …

BIG RACES + HUGE PRIZE MONEY + OVER HYPE STABLE/MEDIA = FREQUENT FAILINGS AT SHORT PRICES.

Since 2006 there has been just 90 winners from 318 runners that were sent off in the betting at 4/1 or less. That’s just 28.3% and falls below market expectation. Clear figures that these horses are over bet by the public and as a result offer no value, especially at starting price.

However, it’s not all doom and gloom. Looking at those horses under different sets that head the market it’s easy to see where the disparity lies.

Since 2006 to 2014 the table below shows the stats for the Clear/joint/co favourites –

Screen Shot 2015-06-15 at 18.37.12

What jumps out is the big disparity between favourites in non-handicaps versus handicaps and I have been using a simple micro system that has improved both the profit and win percentage of the jollies in these non-handicap races for a number of years now. This simple system has had good success having been profitable in seven of the last nine Royal festivals including a profit in each of the last five meetings.

Here are the rules of this system –

Non Handicap.

Horse aged three, four and five.

Favs inc Jt/Co priced @ 5/1 or less.

Race Distance: 1m – 2m5.5f

Last raced 75 or less days on turf (flat race).

Here are the results –

Screen Shot 2015-06-15 at 18.44.16

I will be back later this month or early July with another angle (or two) to go to battle with, so until then enjoy the great racing from Ascot.

Derek Sheppard

Left school at 16 and went into my first employment as a mechanical technical engineer. Those first five years of employment were perhaps my most enjoyable and I finished my apprenticeship having gained a degree, as well as the usual ONC, OND, HNC and HND. The company I worked for moved away from England, across the Atlantic to America whilst I was in my fourth year. I never did join up with them and head my own team as I had not long before hand got engaged, and my roots were in England and I'm one of those patriotic people. I went from one job to another, never really settling and being under paid as Company's were feeling the pinch under a Tory government led by Mrs T. Some thirty years later I decided it was the time I started out betting for my living. My interest in racing and betting first started out when I wrote a piece about 'probability' for Maths during my second year of my apprenticeship. This was later than my first bets, and as with most people, this started out as a child with a bet on the National. My interest grew and I read as many books as I could on betting, no internet back in those days. What was written then and still holds true today is that you can't win every day, you will by the very nature have more losing days than winning days. If anyone wants to be a winner, then they will have to accept this. I have seen so many people go 'on tilt' because they can't accept they are going to have a losing day. I started to get interested in racing systems after reading Clive Holt's Fineform publication 'Profitable Betting Strategies'. I still have this and a number of his other publications today and I still re-read them. I have now become a successful bettor of horses (and sports) in as much as I make a comfortable living. I'm restricted by many bookmakers and most of my betting is now done through the exchanges.

7 Comments

  1. Hi Michael

    Would it be possible for you show the way you can use the Racing Post’s racing predictor to a better advantage please.It was shown a few months ago.

    Brian

  2. HORSE NAME
    RACING POST RATING
    TOPSPEED RATING
    AVERAGE RATING(CALULATED)
    RATINGS RANK ORDER
    DAYS SINCE LAST RACE
    FITNESS POINTS (CALCULATED)
    ENTER TOTAL OF WINS AND PLACES ON THIS GOING
    ENTER TOTAL RACES ON THE GOING
    GOING FACTOR (CALCULATED)
    ENTER TOTAL OF WINS AND PLACES AT THE COURSE
    ENTER TOTAL OF RACES AT THE COURSE
    COURSE FACTOR (CALCULATED)
    ENTER PRIZE MONEY WON
    ENTER TOTAL OF ALL RACES
    CLASS FACTOR (CALCULATED)
    CLASS RANK ORDER
    ENTER PLACE 3RD MOST RECENT RACE
    ENTER PLACE 2ND MOST RECENT RACE
    ENTER PLACE IN MOST RECENT RACE
    PLACINGS FACTOR (CALCULATED)
    PLACINGS RANK ORDER

    THIS IS ONE WAY OF WORKING OUT RATING WITH THE RACEINGPOST

    1. Hi Stephen,

      Having just read your post I’m left wondering what is it all about. Are all of the factors entered into a spreadsheet and if so where can I get same?

      Kind regards

      Ramsey

      1. ya its entered into a spreadsheet you cant get it now its call Dynamic race Analyzer i have had it for a few years now.but only works for 14 days.but i have have be doing for over a week now and it still say ing will expire in 13 days.
        i have only be doing

        RACING POST RATING
        TOPSPEED RATING
        DAYS SINCE LAST RACE
        ENTER PLACE 3RD MOST RECENT RACE
        ENTER PLACE 2ND MOST RECENT RACE
        ENTER PLACE IN MOST RECENT RACE

        but i onlying be takering the top 6 on one of my software sys.

        MARKET 2:10 Tennessee Bird
        Redcar 3:30 Hussar Ballad
        Market 3:55 Ruaraidh Hugh
        Redcar 5:55 Atreus

        just my luck will not get a winner now lol
        i do win and place

        stephen

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