Advice

Racing Post Trophy Preview

(Last Updated On: October 27, 2012)

It was a very disappointing run from Prodigality yesterday and hopefully today we can find the winner of the Racing Post Trophy which is being run at Doncaster at 15:05.

This is a small race with just seven runners in it competing for the £122,000 prize. It is going to be a very competitive affair. If we look at the figures of runners over the same conditions then Trading Leather and Steeler have both run races within the last year. While the speed figures were similar Trading Leather achieved this in a class 1 race whereas Steeler put the figure in on a Class 5 race.

Widening our conditions to take into account similar going types and a slightly larger range of distances, we get all the runners with races.

First Cornerstone came first in the class one race on the 26th August, however the speed achieved was not strong and the distance was slightly shorter than today. It is possible that the longer distance may suit but we have no evidence of that and so this is a concern.

Birdman has had a lot of races this year and the performance has been quite volatile. However recently there have been two good finishes in class one races over similar distances to today. There is a definite preference for firmer ground which he is unlikely to get today though. While he has still finished in good positions on softer conditions the decrease in speed over softer ground is notable.

Sir Patrick Moore finished 1st on the 18th May at Newbury. Since then he has been racing in France with decreasing performance. While the Newbury race shows potential, it was a class 4 and there would still be some ground for it to make up in order to compete against todays runners. When we take into account the declining performance in France it makes it very difficult to back this runner.

Van Der Neer is also seeing a big rise in class. There has been a small decline in performance over the last two races but nothing to be too concerned about, especially since the last race was over soft ground and showed only a small decline in speed which would be expected. In both of these races he finished 1st and has certainly put in competitive figures. If he can rise to the new class then there is definitely the possibility of a contender here.

Looking at all of Trading Leather’s races we can see that on the 23rd September the speed figure achieved was lower than the other two races. However the class of this race was significantly lower as well and he had won easily by the half-way mark. There is no doubt that Trading Leather is a threat in todays race.

Steeler has achieved the highest speed figures of all the runners in the race, however these were achieved on firmer ground than he is likely to get today. These performances were both achieved in class one races and he came 1st and 2nd. On the 21st July he ran on good to soft ground and came 2nd in a class 5 race. The speed figure achieved though was of a similar level to his next race which was a class 2. This runner has so far shown himself to be consistent and in good form. This could be the horse to beat in this race.

Kingsbarns has only had one race which was at Navan and was a low class affair which he won easily. It was over the same distance and ground conditions as today so he will certainly like them. He is currently favourite in the market as well which indicates that he is expected to do well in the running. I generally don’t like to bet on runners who have not got a bigger track record when racing against others who do as I’ve found that they do not offer value in the long-term. While he is likely to be a competitor I will be going against this runner in favour of some of the others in the race.

Van Der Neer, Trading Leather and Steeler all look to be strong contenders. Looking at the market, it agrees with us and they are all very similarly priced. I would expect to see them bounce around a little bit during the day but without a huge amount of overall change. If I had to choose one runner then it would be between Steeler and Trading Leather. However I think that this is going to be a very tight affair and at the current odds we can achieve a 65% profit if we dutch these three runners and one of them wins. As I’ve decided to go against Kingsbarns this would cover the runners that I feel are going to be the contenders in the race and so this is the bet I’m going to be placing.

This is an ultra competitive race and it is going to be a battle to finish line. Let me know your thoughts on the race by leaving a comment below.

Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help bettors become long-term profitable. After writing hundreds of articles I started to build software that contained my personal ratings. The Race Advisor has more factors for UK horse racing than any other site, and we pride ourselves on creating tools and strategies that are unique, and allow you to make a long-term profit without the need for tipsters. You can also check out my personal blog or my personal Instagram account.

34 Comments

  1. my comments are on this race are as follows my ratings steeler 32 trading leather 15 first corner stone 14

    1. Yup this horse could go very well and the trainer is saying it is performing but I just can’t back a horse based on what the trainer says.

  2. no bet for me in this race but if you put a gun to my head (please don’t) i would pick trading leather and a saver on first cornerstone

  3. Not a race for me to bet in, but certainly a race from which to bank the form for 2013. Far too many unknowns and several improvers that could be anything. A race to watch and hope to enjoy a spectacle such as Camelot winning last year. Coolmore take pride and pleasure in naming their horses, and save “the best” names for their best. Kingsbarns gives me that feeling, seven favourites winning from the last 10 runnings……….points to Kingsbarnes? Money firmly stays in pocket!

    1. Kingsbarns could definitely go well but I like to see more form on my bets. I won’t be surprised if he wins but won’t be upset either as I think the other runners have a strong chance and will run well and I would prefer my money to be on runners that have enough form for me to analyse.

        1. Under normal situations I wouldn’t be betting in this race. I operate a separate bankroll for festivals and big races which is smaller than my main bankroll as they are so competitive.

  4. Not a race to bet on for me as I think you can make a case for 5 of them. My best for today would be Nikola in the 2-25 at Aintree available at an e/w price. Best of luck everyone.

  5. im a big ground man and i will be having a small bet on steeler but will wait to near the off to see if the ground is drying out kingsbrans win easy on heavy ground but no compo in that race will wait and see

  6. For me it is a case of looking for each way value.
    Nearly every one on here is thinking not a good day to pick a winner too tricky.
    My bet of the day at Chepstow:- when the pices went up this morning, it was knocked out of my money range 11/10.
    It seem’s it is a good contender for the win.
    Wonderfull

  7. no bet on this race too many variables.not enough solid form a pure guess van de neer trading leather steeler in that order mike

      1. Placed a win bet on Steeler with a saver on Kingsbarns and came out £0.01 ahead. Did
        consider the win on Steeler with straight forecast on Kingsbarns to beat Steeler. But
        fortunately, as it turned out, the safer option was the way to go.

      2. Placed a win bet on Steeler with a saver on Kingsbarns and came out £0.01 ahead. Did
        consider the win on Steeler with straight forecast on Kingsbarns to beat Steeler. But
        fortunately, as it turned out, the safer option was the way to go.

  8. It’s been a tough weekend for me. Kingsbarns took the race but I’m still happy with the choice to not have bet on that runner especially at 15/8. Put in a very good race though and next time I will consider it. Steeler just missed the second place and ran well. I think Trading Leather should have put a better race in than it did.

  9. I read what you said and duly took note then backed Kingsbarns at 5/2 and was never worried throughout the race.

    You needed to watch the Navan Maiden race a few times to see how green yet how easily he won on exactly the same going. Joseph O’Brien said ‘he could not get it back to the paddock’ after the race…

    Enjoy your stuff!

    Paul

  10. Whilst I find it acceptable to support two or more runners in a 12plus runner handicap…prices allowing….I find it quite absurd to back three horses in a 7 runner non handicap. The bet you offered may have been your actual bet but would never be mine.

    1. That’s fair enough if this type of betting doesn’t suit you. In very competitive races I am happy to Dutch as many as half the field plus one if there are that many strong contenders offering value. Although more often I’m dutching three or four runners.

  11. Hi Micheal
    With reference to your disappointment over the run of prodigality.
    The horse had climbed from 78 to 96 this year, the horse hit 98pr lto top 5lb claimer on board, if we allow 3lbs for d,egan the resulting pr would be 96. hence last 3runs would have negative pr.s above his official rating.
    james.

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