Betting Knowledge

Royal Ascot 2012 Day 1 – Live

This is the first in a live blog post on the Race Advisor where we are going to be looking at Royal Ascot as the day progresses. I am going to be updating this post with thoughts on each race throughout the day and I hope you will get involved by leaving comments below. The first race starts at 2.30 so I shall be back 45 minutes before with my thoughts on the race.

2.30pm 

I am just trying to get an accurate going assessment.

Okay the going is looking good-soft and edging towards good. I am going to start by removing Bullet Train, Side Glance, Indomnito, Windsor Palace, Premio Loco, Red Jazz and Helmet.

Frankel obviously is strong, but do we want to take odds of 1.14? Not for me.

We need to oppose him if possible. Excelebration and Strong Suit have both been showing steady improvement with Excelebration having the edge.

Excelebration has a good speed estimate over todays going.

Looking at Red Jazz again, there is some possibilities. Just concern over a possible overall downward speed regression angle.

Strong Suit hasn’t raced for a while so I am removing him.

I am left with Excelebration and Red Jazz as oppositions with Excelebration favoured.

Red Jazz is at a lower stake as well.

Scratch that, I am removing that forecast, not enough return.

I am going to be betting on Excelebration e/w with a forecast of Frankel, Excelebration and Red Jazz to place.

Lots of questions about Strong Suit, looks good and could do well. Not for me because not raced recently enough.

Interestingly Worthadd looks strong over the going. But not good enough for me.

The more I look at Red Jazz the more interesting I find it.

Watch out for the place market on Betfair for this race if you are doing e/w bets, the odds are not good. Get on with a bookie if you can.

Ground is likely to be on the soft side of good by the end of the second race but not good-soft.

Just removed the pop-up that appears on this page so you can refresh as much as you want without it irritating you.

Whoever you bet on, good luck.

As expected Frankel put in an incredible performance, Excelebration came 2nd. I would have liked to have seen more by Red Jazz but still was better than the 400’s it was at on Betfair. A small profit made on the first race.

On to the next race…

3.05

23 runners means we need to remove a lot of horses. I am going to let you know the ones that I am going to look in more detail at rather than the ones that I have removed because there are so many.

Sorry for the delay, so many runners!

Okay I am looking more at Bated Breath, Medicean Man, Sole Power, Spirit Quartz, Stone Of Folca and Ortensa.

Medicean Man has been declining in performance and not the greatest speed figure so I am going to remove.

Bated Breath has massive improvement recently, strong form and a good speed projection must be considered.

Sole Power has a good speed projection but hasn’t shown much recent improvement. Still considered but less strong.

Spirit Quartz looks strong and improving. Definitely in my contenders.

Stone Of Folca I am going to remove because of poor form ratings and lower speed projections.

Leaving me Bated Breath, Spirit Quartz and Ortensa with Sole Power and Stone Of Folca as possible additions.

How to bet?

I am going to focus on my top 3 in a dutch bet.

Also adding Spirit Quartz for a place.

This race is going to be a bit late.

Having to remove a horse from the stalls.

Bated Breath just couldn’t get there. Sole Power came third.

3.45

This is going to be a very hard race to choose a selection on.

There is not much to put between the runners in this race. I would probably suggest leaving well alone, but since this is Ascot and we want to see what we can find the three I am focusing on are Foxtrot Romeo, The Nile and Dragon Pulse.

I can’t find much for any stand-out horses here. The reason I am choosing these three is that they have recently been improving, have good form ratings and speed projections, like the going and have every chance to run well.

What are you doing in this race?

My selections are coming in since I placed my bets.

Lots of bets for Power and if the ground is hard enough he will go well. I still have a slight concern as to whether the ground is hard enough for him.

As expected a difficult race to bet on. Foxtrot Romeo lost it at the last, The Nile came down and so we move on to the next in a difficult days punting. There are still 3 races left to try and bring a profit back on the day.

4.25

Another large race, I shall be back in a minute with more details.

Using the market combined with improver graphs I have narrowed the field down to…

Artigiano, Sir Prancealot, Funk Soul Brother, Lines Of Battle, Olympic Glory, Dawn Approach, Cristoforo Colombo

Of those I am going to remove Sir Prancealot for having to improve significantly in order to take the race.

In these races we have to listen to the market and the market is saying Dawn Approach has a good chance. Outside of that my two strongest for form and conditions are Artigiano and Funk Soul Brother, however the market is putting me off as it is usually a very good choice with the average winner in this race having odds of 3.54.

I am still going to go with those three runners. I will betting in a dutch bet and the two outsiders in the place market if the odds are suitable.

I just can’t get excited about join favourite Sir Prancelaot.

A win with Dawn Approach, missed out on the place bets.

5.00

Yet another tough race, I am going to use speed graphs in order to narrow the field. Back with some thoughts in a few minutes.

Very hard but I have narrowed down to Dark Ranger, Danvilla, Al Khawaneej and Montery. Simeneon has also got superb form figures over the jumps but can he do it on the flat?

I think he has potential to win. I would not usually be betting in a race like his, but having checked the odds on a dutch across all these runners we can make over a 100% profit if one of them wins and so that is what I am going to be doing.

A brilliant run from Simeneon and Al Khawaneej ran strongly for a second place. This dutch bet has brought us back into a profit on the day.

Let’s see if we can increase it in the last race!

5.35

Another wide open race. I have narrowed the field so far to…

Pay Freeze, Polski Max, Bungle InTheJungle, Pearl Noir, Ask Dad, Tommy’s Secret and Cosmic Chatter

Of these the strongest seem to be to me to be Pay Freeze, Ask Dad and Cosmic Chatter. Although Bungle InTheJungle comes close.

Pearl Noir hasn’t won on the race type and so I am going to remove that runner. Polski Max hasn’t either but since it is one of my strongest I shall keep it.

Bungle InTheJungle and Polski Max have actually been declining over similar conditions so I shall remove them.

Tommys Secret is not as strong as the others and so that leaves me with 3 runners. Pay Freeze, Ask Dad and Cosmic Chatter.

I will be dutching these selections and also doing a wheeled forecast on them.

I am going to be doing a tally on the profit if you had been following me exactly after the last race.

We missed out on the last race unfortunately as that would have brought us in a very nice profit.

A Look Back At The Day

If you had followed me exactly then you would have pretty much broken even on the day, this is because we missed the last race.

Up until the last race, to £10 bets, you would have staked around £299 and had a return of £359. We risked the profit on the last race which we missed and that brought us back to £299.

So all in all a break-even day and one that was also good fun. We are in a good position to move forwards on the rest of the meeting and finish the week with a tidy profit.

I hope that you enjoyed this today. Please let me know if you enjoyed it so I know whether to do it again tomorrow. If enough people would like us to do have a live post again tomorrow then I shall get it setup.

All the best

Michael

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Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help punters improve their betting profits and think outside the box with their betting strategies. To date he has written over 450 articles on the site and recently started UK Racing News which has become a leading news site for horse racing in the UK and IRE. Check out my personal blog or my Google+

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90 Comments

        1. Yes, it is a welcome distraction before the media avalance of England are going to win Euro2012 which seems to be gathering momentum.

          Missed your live thoughts, but would enjoy the banter for day2.
          take care Shane

  1. With out Frankel Markets offer value with Ex and and smart suit. The ground is supposed to be good to soft which in itself is odd for this time of year and contest. So if it is more soft, than good, this might be worth sitting out.
    We need to see how the track is riding and if there is, any draw bias in todays proceedings.

    Today I will not be putting any money on Ascot except for a small dutch on the 5pm if the ground bears up.
    Tomorrow is another day and there will be lots of Tomorrows to look forward to with less risk to my betting bank. (sore point clickbank).

    1. Just done one of my rating checks on the first and would you beleive Frankel comes second to Side Glance. Interesting to see where that comes from

    1. Well on the bookmakers sites have a look at strong suit worthadd and Excelebration as placed horses that should be some profit and value. 11 runners at the moment so a tricast could pay out a little bit too. Trifecta on the tote.

    1. A few comments on Worthadd Brian…Interestingly Worthadd looks strong over the going. But not good enough for me.

      The figures are good but just not enough for me.

  2. I got Evens on Excelebration & 11/1 on Worthadd. Bookies are a disgrace. 137.5% book percentage is diabolical!

  3. I know I’d rather be going EW about a 33/1 shot than taking 1/10 on frankel. Nice ratings to ID Side Glance!

  4. 3.45 – the worry about Power, who looks the best on trends, was because of softish ground but if At The Races are correct it has dried out quite a bit so he’s the one for me.

  5. On your top 10 websites article Hremival, Fencing and Born to sea have come out top on pattern form.(if i’ve sussed it right.If not it’s back to the drawing board)

  6. From a stats perspective:

    Irish and French bred horses have won 15 of the last 16.
    Remove those who haven’t finished in the top 4 LTO – Dragon Pulse, Hermival & Most Improved(!)

    I like Most Improved but it’s Power, Gabriel & Lucayan for me.

  7. Hard race as you say, I did
    Born to Sea to win. Has to do the Biz soon, Hope it’s today
    Gabriel EW Got a good chance, think?
    Great thread this Like a Lot
    Norrie

    1. If Gabriel performs to his best then he certainly has a chance. The problem with this race is most of the runners have a chance.

      Pleased you are liking the thread 🙂

  8. Coventry Stakes – I think 2yo races like this are a lottery but will go with the O’Brien trend and have a modest wager on Cristoforo Columbo. Meets all the trends except he’s in stall 6.

  9. Veiled to repeat last year’s performance? She’s 7lbs higher this year and with Eddie Ahearn in the saddle again, I think she’ll go close. 12/1 EW is fair enough, I think.

    1. Veiled has shown a small decline in performance but then the last distance was much longer. My biggest concern is there hasn’t been a winning race for a while, but then again that is true for most of the runners in this race. The performance on the flat in October last year also gives me some concern.

      However having said that I would say this race is wide open and there is certainly a chance to take it and I agree that 12/1 e/w are decent odds.

  10. Was up after 2am last night/this morning. I had lines thru almost every pick in this race.
    Cosimo De Medici I came up with.
    No
    De Medici
    EW Fiulin

    Be Lucky Norrie

  11. Something was not working as all I saw was the first race.
    Can not say that I did follow the rest of the races at ascot as I did not
    Perhaps tomorrow will be better.

  12. Very interesting to read, did not follow as was away from my computer, will look forward to it if you do it again tomorrow.

    Thanks

  13. I thoroughly enjoyed this exchange of thoughts on the racing. I think you should definitely do it again for the rest of the week! If nothing else it’ll get more people/traffic on the RA site.

    Although I’m a member of the Puntology course, which is informative, I haven’t spent much time in and around the RA site.

    Good luck everyone for tomorrow.

  14. fascinating,i watched every step,i will gladly watch again,it felt more
    human than seeing a text sent in the morning,well done.

  15. Interesting stuff.Would be great if you could indicate the definite bets you take not only mentioning the horses that are interesting to watch. Do you dutch on every race?

    1. I use dutch bets a lot anyway but even more so in these big festival races. Not necessarily every race, it depends on the runners, but certainly a lot of them.

  16. Not a bad effort as it was a tricky card to say the least.
    Obviously this will be the case for most of the week with top class horses and prize money to match.
    At least the difficulty is made up for by the potential prices to be had.

    Looking forward to today.

    Gary

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