Advice

Royal Ascot 2012 Day 2 – Live

(Last Updated On: June 20, 2012)

Yesterday we tried the first ever live posting for the first day of Royal Ascot. It was a great day and although we didn’t make a profit, we broke even on the day.

Thank you to all the feedback from everyone, I was overwhelmed by the response and pleased that you all found it both enjoyable and of use in your punting.

So here we are for day two of Royal Ascot. I will be back around 45-30 minutes before the first race to start posting. If you are following this post then please make sure to refresh the page regularly because I will be updating the post throughout the day. In order to see the latest updates you will need to reload the page.

And, don’t forget to get involved by leaving a comment below. Let’s see if we can make a profit today.

2.30pm Jersey Stakes

Okay we are back and looking into the first race of the day. There are 4 non-runners and the going is looking good all round. I shall be back in a few minutes with some more thoughts.

I have removed runners based on speed graphs and this has left me with…

Sentaril, Producer, Lethal Force, Aljamaaheer, Laffan, Valbchek, Telwaar, Boomerang Bob, Fort Bastion

I am going to remove Lethal Force and Valbchek for being just slightly below recent performances than the others. They have a strong chance but we need to narrow the field down more.

Fort Bastion looks very strong, as does Producer. If Sentaril continues to improve at the same rate then he could be a serious threat.

Boomerang Bob is very interesting and at current odds could be a solid each-way potential runner.

It is very tough to remove any more runners but we still have 7 runners. For this reason I am going to remove Laffan and Telwaar as I think they may have to try slightly harder to win this race.

That leaves me with…

Sentaril, Producer, Aljamaaheer, Fort Bastion and Boomerang Bob

How will I be betting…

Fort Bastion is a non-runner.

I will dutch all selections, you can easily make well over a 100% profit on your bet.

I am also going to take Boomerang Bob and Producer to place.

Last couple going in.

Good race, Aljamaaheer got blocked and probably would have won if he could have got the run. Looks like we may have got the place on Producer, I think we just missed out on it with Boomerang Bob but he performed well and should not have been odds of 40.

We missed out on the places although two out of our 4 came in the top 4.

On to the next…

3.05 Windsor Forest Stakes

A smaller field is nice and gives us a little bit of respite, although the competition is still fierce.

Looking at improver graphs Lay Time is the only clear removal in the race from those who have raced in similar conditions within the last 90 days.

I am going to look at speed performances and remove Barefoot Lady, Beatrice Aurora, Law Of The Range and Rythm Of Light.

I Love Me is also removed as I don’t have much data and it is not being backed in the market.

Looking at average speed and form improvement/decline and class, the horses that look strongest are…

Emulous, Clinical and Chachamaidee

I will be dutch betting those three runners. I will also do a wheeled forecast on these 3 runners. Considering Clinical to place as well.

Running late.

Great run from Chachamaidee, if he hadn’t missed the start he would have taken it easily. Disappointed by the other two runners.

3.45 Prince Of Wales Stakes

I am going to start by removing the big priced horses and those that have declining improver graphs. That gives us…

Carlton House – Prefers a firmer going but has been improving consistently and has excellent potential.

So You Think – Has everything going for him. Has been improving in form rapidly and has the highest speed projection figures.

Farhh – Has been improving well and strong on form. Last race saw a small decline but was on softer going and the return back to the favoured going today should help.

Planteur – I don’t have much information about Planteur, I would prefer more. I have heard that he is in good form and expected to run well in this race. I am not so keen on betting on runners I don’t know much about though.

I think that the odds on So You Think are a bit low. Could well win but not sure I want to be on him at that price. That leaves me for a win bet on Carlton house and an each-way on Farhh.

We got the each-way in Farhh, a good run from Carlton House but he just wasn’t good enough to beat So You Think.

4.25 Royal Hunt Cup

Okay this is a big race with a lot of runners so we need to be ruthless in our eliminations.

I am going to start by removing those with a declining form class.

Next I am going to remove those runners who are massive outsiders.

That still leaves us with 16 runners so I am going to use projected and average speed figures to narrow down further.

This leaves me with 7 runners of whom my current strongest are…

Arabian Star, Dimension, Directorship, Edinburgh Knight and Prince Johanne.

Directorship is a non-runner so that leaves us with 4 runners.

A winning bet for us with Prince of Johanne.

5.00 Queen Mary Stakes

Another race with large numbers of runners. I am going to follow a slightly different approach this time and remove all runners that are large outsiders as I don’t like betting at odds of 29/1 or higher.

This removes just under half the field. Next I am going to remove runners based on form and class.

This only takes out another two runners unfortunately. I am going to use speed a lot in this race as it is a 5 furlong race. I shall start using speed graphs to narrow down further.

This leaves us with 10 runners. I shall now use average speed figures in the last 90 days and whether they have been improving or declining.

From these runners then strongest looking to me, based on this are…

Graphic Guest, Hoyam, Jubilee Diamond, Satsuma, Sharaarah, Upward Spiral

I am not sure how to bet on this race at the moment, I am looking at the available odds.

We could dutch these runners and easily clear a 100% profit if one of them won but I am looking to see if I can remove more.

I have removed Hoyam and will be dutching the rest.

Great run from Hoyam. Unfortunately we missed out in this race. This is always the problems in races with a lot of unexposed runners. Onwards to the final race of the day.

5.35 Sandringham Handicap

It just gets harder today. This last race is just as tough as the rest of the day has been, hopefully we can finish today with a winner.

I have a shortlist of runners that are…

Villeneuve, Ladys First, Kinetica, Falls Of Lora, Duntie and Devotion

Villeneuve has not had a good race in nearly a year and so will be removed.

Kinetica has not raced since October 2011 and that was poor. Has not had a good race since August 2011 and so will be removed.

Duntle I have not got enough data on but is very strong in the market and so must stay in the list.

Devotion has never won a race before and so I shall remove.

This leaves Ladys First and Falls Of Lora who both look strong. Our final contender list is 3 runners

Devotion, Ladys First and Falls Of Lora

How I will be betting…

I will start by dutching the three selections.

I will also place a 20/80 each-way bet on all three selections.

We did excellently on the last race of the day. I shall wait for final figures to come through and then confirm what the state of our bankroll is for the meeting.

An Overall Look At The Day

In a similar way to yesterday we had a poor start to the day. Luckily we picked up throughout the middle of the day and the last race of the day helped us to get back on an even footing.

We made small return on investment of 2.88% It would have nice to have been more but we are up by a small amount overall and any profit is certainly better than a loss.

Hopefully tomorrow we will be able to increase this profit.

Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help bettors become long-term profitable. After writing hundreds of articles I started to build software that contained my personal ratings. The Race Advisor has more factors for UK horse racing than any other site, and we pride ourselves on creating tools and strategies that are unique, and allow you to make a long-term profit without the need for tipsters. You can also check out my personal blog or my personal Instagram account.

40 Comments

  1. only one race for me at Ascot today, two from the lower prices and two from the top end of the prices.
    4.25.

    I will be doing a 20/80 Man of Action for small stakes but a nice return if it comes in the place’s

    1. Thanks for joining in Liam. I haven’t got into that race yet but shall let you know what I am doing when I do.

    1. Good contender but I removed because of a small decline recently. Not normally enough to be a concern but in a field like this that we need to narrow that was the reasoning for my choice.

    1. Looking back it had the possibility on figures but they weren’t as good as others. That’s what makes these races so tough!

  2. Carlton House for me comes out as NO.1 on 52/78 and I liked the way it did the last race I saw it in.
    add to which a bit of Loyalty for the Queen. Carlton house e/w for very small stakes.

    1. I like Carlton House as well but odds too low for an each-way for me. I am going for a win on him.

  3. I agree with you. I watched Farhh win at Thirsk and he was very impressive when giving weight away to rest of the field. Could be anything.
    Carlton House is my win bet. Lets hope.

  4. little mistake in the 3 runners, Devotion was out and Duntle in or not
    Your selection : Devotion, Ladys First and Falls Of Lora

    Overall well done for the day

    1. My apologies, Devotion as a selection was a typo as you can see two lines above I removed him as a selection.

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