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Micro-Angles – Weekend Big Race Trends

Two big handicaps this weekend, the November Handicap at Doncaster and the Badger Ales Trophy over jumps a Wincanton. Here are some key trends from both races that will hopefully help you when it comes to shortlisting. Starting with the November Handicap.

Doncaster – November Handicap – 1m 4f – The figures are from 2008 to 2016 and consist of 9 winners from 195 runners 35 placed

Key Trends:

Odds SP: 20/1 & under – 9 winners from 114 runners 27 placed

Official Rating vs Last Race: 1lb lower to 4lb higher – 9 winners from 125 runners 29 placed

Odds SP Last Race: 14/1 @ under – 9 winners from 130 runners 28 placed

A previous run at Doncaster has been an advantage with 7 winners from 70 runners 23 placed having raced at the course on two or more occasions.

Interestingly a low draw has been a big disadvantage in recent years with runners in stall’s 1 to 8 being – 0 wins from 66 runners 9 placed.

Wincanton – Badger Ales Trophy – 3m 1f – The figures are from 2008 to 2016 and consist of 9 winners from 119 runners 28 placed

Key Trends:

Age: 5 to 9-year olds – 9 winners from 103 runners 25 placed

Odds SP: 14/1 @ under – 9 winners from 69 runners 21 placed

Official Rating vs last Race: 2lb lower to 10lb higher – 9 winners from 77 runners 20 placed

Odds SP Last Race: 11/4 to 9/1 – 8 winners from 55 runners 14 placed

Days Since Last Run: 11 to 30 days – 7 winners from 53 runners 14 placed

Seven out of the last nine winners were trained by Paul Nicholls (3), David Pipe (2), Charlie Longsdon (1) & Neil Mulholland (1).

Paul Nicholls is 2 wins from 4 runners 50% +15 with his runners in the racing within 25 days of their last start.

Until next time,  be lucky.

John

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John Burke

I have a MA in International Politics and having spent a number of years working in political campaigning but I eventually I realised that politics was not the world where I wanted to work I had been interested in horse racing since the late 1980s but in the early years I was merely just betting and watching racing like most people as a bit of fun and a hobby, then the hobby becomes a passion and that’s what happened to me with horse racing. I soon realised that to make money from my hobby I had to learn as much as I could about the sport and betting in general. The whole process took time but after a number of successful years of betting, I decided in 2011 to take the plunge, gave up my full time day job and decided to bet on horse racing as a part time business and I haven’t looked back since. I like to specialise in the better class of races and I love to solve the puzzles posed by big field handicaps the latter races often provide punters with great value betting opportunities. Whilst most of my time is spent reviewing previous races I like to keep things as simple as possible as even the biggest field handicaps can usually be pruned down to half a dozen strong contenders with the right sort of approach.

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