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Saturday Preview – Big Race Trends

It’s Betfair Chase Day at Haydock on Saturday but that’s not the big race I will be focusing in on. Instead, I am looking at one of the handicaps that make up an excellent supporting card.

Haydock

2:25 – Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1) – 2m 7f

This used to be known as the Fixed Brush hurdle but I think this year’s race is being run over normal hurdles which means the following trends should be respected but certainly not followed too blindly. Last years renewal was won by the 9-year-old Kruzhlinin trained by Philip Hobbs who was sent off at odds of 9/1.

The figures used in these trends are from 2008 to 2016 and consist of 9 winners from 147 runners 34 placed

Key Trends:

Odds SP: 12/1 & under – 9 winners from 57 runners 21 placed
Wins On Going: 1+ – 9 winners from 91 runners 24 placed
Weight: 10-13 to 12-00 – 8 winners from 81 runners 24 placed.

There are no clear age trends but it’s worth noting that 5-year-olds starting 12/1 & under are 5 wins from 14 runners 36% +26.5 9 placed 64%

This is not a race for a really big priced winner and you need to focus in on horses at the front end of the market. At least one win on the going has been essential for past winners of the race and the higher weighted horses have been holding sway recently.

Trainer records with runners starting 12/1 & under and with possible runners are:

David Pipe – 3 winners from 6 runners 50% +11.5
Nick Williams – 2 winners from 4 runners 50% +11.5
Dan Skelton- 1 winner from 2 runners 50% +11
Philip Hobbs – 1 winner from 3 runners 33% +7 2 placed 67%

These four trainers have provided 7 of the last 9 winners of the race and their runners will definitely go on my shortlist for the race

Ante Post Information

There is no ante-post information this week but I will be looking at the race, formerly known as the Hennessey Gold Cup, now the Ladbrokes Trophy which is next weeks big race at Newbury.

Until next time, be lucky.

John

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John Burke

I have a MA in International Politics and having spent a number of years working in political campaigning but I eventually I realised that politics was not the world where I wanted to work I had been interested in horse racing since the late 1980s but in the early years I was merely just betting and watching racing like most people as a bit of fun and a hobby, then the hobby becomes a passion and that’s what happened to me with horse racing. I soon realised that to make money from my hobby I had to learn as much as I could about the sport and betting in general. The whole process took time but after a number of successful years of betting, I decided in 2011 to take the plunge, gave up my full time day job and decided to bet on horse racing as a part time business and I haven’t looked back since. I like to specialise in the better class of races and I love to solve the puzzles posed by big field handicaps the latter races often provide punters with great value betting opportunities. Whilst most of my time is spent reviewing previous races I like to keep things as simple as possible as even the biggest field handicaps can usually be pruned down to half a dozen strong contenders with the right sort of approach.

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