There are many different ways of finding winners and there is no single one that is correct. The method that is correct is the one that works for you. This could be different to everyone else you know. It doesn’t matter. All that matters is that it works for you and it suits your style of betting.
I try to write about as many possible ways of finding selections as possible so that you can look at them all and decide which are going to suit you. But I’m not going to do that today. Today I’m going to do something different. In this article I’m going to write about some of the ways of finding winners that suit the majority of people.
From these you can make your choice as to which one that you want to use in your betting.
Using recent form we are looking for horses that have performed well recently. When we use the term “well”, this can mean both in terms of finish position and also distance to winner. It also means how the horse performed during the race.
When using this method of analysis we are looking to find out whether…
- A horse improving or declining? Or is a horse just staying at the same level?
- The horse has been running over the correct distances, tracks and going to suit it? Or has it been raced on unsuitable conditions and when it comes back to favourable ones is it likely to perform well again?
- Has the horse had any significant comments both before and after the race by connections?
A speed profile is based on speed ratings but takes other things into consideration. As I’ve said many times, a rating is just the beginning of your analysis. Sure it speeds things up massively, but you don’t want to take it simply at face value. Put a bit of extra information into it and it will become so much more powerful.
The most important thing is that two horses with the same speed figure do not necessarily have the same chance of winning a race. You need to check…
- If the horse is running over a suitable track, distance and going.
- Whether it has been drawn in a good or bad draw.
- Is it likely to be slow away?
- Can it cope with the pace?
- Does it get held up?
Collateral form is the analysis of form in relation to other horses in the race. As with Speed Profiles this is a very powerful method of selection finding if… we add a little bit of extra information.
We want to know…
- How a horse has performed against the other runners in the race
- Are there any other races that connect the horse to other runners in the race
But most importantly you want to ask yourself if… the horses form can turn around can be easily spotted and if so what are its indicators.
Put this information together and you have a powerful technique for finding winners.
Certain types of horses suit certain types of races. If we can match the types of horses that win at specific types of races then we will find winners!
To use this you need to create profiles for both race types and horses. Then you look at past winners of a race and determine which profile of horses wins them most often. You look for this profile amongst the runners in the race today and you have found your selection.
While this takes some effort initially it is very worth while and you will be happy you’ve put in the time.
Using pedigree analysis is the method of using a horses family history to determine what conditions a horse is likely to perform well under. This can be done simply by looking back at form or using a method such as the Dosage Method.
You will be surprised at how accurate this method can be and it is particularly powerful in races where the majority of runners are debutants and the market has very little knowledge about how the race is likely to be run.
One of the harder forms of analysis in the UK as we do not get sectional times. The sectional times are the time it takes for a horse to past specific points in the race. In other countries these are provided in the daily papers and they allow a highly accurate analysis of the pace of the horse.
In the UK we need to be more creative with our pace analysis and use in-running comments of replays to determine the pace of a horse. The time it takes to do this puts of the majority of punters. But, where the majority of punters don’t want to spend the time those that do thrive. And it is no different when analysing pace.
You put all of these five styles of analysis together to create a fully rounded analysis. While this is the most powerful of all, it is only powerful if you have mastered all five techniques separately. You should not be trying to do this until you can successfully make a profit from each of the individual techniques on their own. Once you can do that then you can combine them together to create the ultimate analysis.
All of these techniques work on their own if you master them correctly. You do not need to do them all. Pick one, focus on it, specialise in it and become a master at it!