Strategies

HOW TO: Make Your Own Horse Racing Power Ratings

(Last Updated On: May 7, 2020)

We are all used to horse racing ratings, but what about horse racing power ratings.

At it’s most complex, a horse racing power rating is a figure that contains all the information necessary to analyse a race.

It’s a combination of all the factors needed to assess a race.

However, any rating that has combined multiple ratings, or pieces of data, can be considered a horse racing power rating.

Horse racing power ratings enable us to find the contenders in a race, and decide who we want to bet on, much faster than normal form analysis.

One excellent method for using horse racing power ratings, is to have multiple power ratings that each specialise in different race conditions.

The reason that most bettors don’t use power ratings, is because they’re traditionally considered difficult to make.


MAKING HORSE RACING POWER RATINGS

There are many ways to create power ratings. Generally they all follow similar principles, and in this post we’re going to look at a ‘fuzzy’ method.

METHOD 1: The Fuzzy Method

This method is one of my favourites, and whilst I’d love to claim the creation of it, I can’t. I’m not sure where I heard of it, but I first came across it many years ago, tested it out to find it works, and have been using. variations of it ever since.

STEP #1: Deciding On The Ratings

The first step is decide what ratings we want to include in our power rating. This is the longest part of the process, because we won’t get the best combination of ratings first time. Meaning we’ll need to repeat this processes a number of times to find the best solution.

For example, you may choose a Speed, Race Preference, Class, Form ratings to start with.

It’s best to have ratings that are as independent of each other as possible.

What I mean by that is… don’t put an estimated speed rating and a speed based form rating as separate factors. It would be better to combine these two factors together first (because they are both ultimately using speed), and then use it as one single factor.

Assuming each horse has one of those four ratings above, the next to decide how important each factor is.

STEP #2: How Important Is Each Factor

There’s only one easy way to start… with an educated guess!

Don’t worry if you get it wrong.

We determine the importance of a rating by applying a “weight” to it. It will become clear in a moment how that works.

I suggest giving each rating a weight between 0 and 100, and the rating you think is most important get a weight of 100.

In this example I’m going to give the following weights to our ratings:

Weights382462100
SpeedRace PreferenceClassForm

This is where the fuzzy part comes in… We choose our fuzzy levels. An example of fuzzy levels are

  • (5) Excellent
  • (4) Good
  • (3) Average
  • (2) Poor
  • (1) Weak

You’ll see that I’ve also given each of our fuzzy levels a number. We’re going to use these in a moment.

The fuzzy levels is an easy way for us to categorise each horse for a rating, instead of using numbers.

A REMINDER

  1. We’ve chosen the ratings that are going to be used in our power rating
  2. We’ve chosen the weights for each of the ratings
  3. We’ve made fuzzy levels

STEP #3: Power Rating A Horse Race

I’m going to use the following race to show how we use all the information we’ve put together to create a horse racing power rating, and determine which are the strongest horses in the race.

Weights382462100
Horse NameSpeedRace PreferenceClassForm
Aces Or Better5423
Alfadora1444
DarkBen3241
Himalayan Trail2233
Morning Moment2211
Runshan4334
Shrewd Investor4141
Starburst Diamond3432
The Hollow Bottom5552
Wizards Dust2133

Above I’ve listed our four ratings, and their weights above them.

Underneath each of these ratings I’ve put down a fuzzy level I consider each horse to be at for each rating, using the numbers I labelled each fuzzy level.

Next we want to multiple the horses fuzzy level number by the weight of that rating. This would look like this…

Weights382462100
Horse NameSpeedRace PreferenceClassForm
Aces Or Better19096124300
Alfadora3896248400
DarkBen11448248100
Himalayan Trail7648186300
Morning Moment764862100
Runshan15272186400
Shrewd Investor15224248100
Starburst Diamond11496186200
The Hollow Bottom190120310200
Wizards Dust7624186300

Next we add all the new ratings together for each horse, this gives us a total for every runner that looks like this:

Horse NameTotal
Aces Or Better710
Alfadora782
DarkBen510
Himalayan Trail610
Morning Moment286
Runshan810
Shrewd Investor524
Starburst Diamond596
The Hollow Bottom820
Wizards Dust586

This is good as we now have a total score for each horse, based on multiple ratings and their importance.

But it still doesn’t mean anything to us, and doesn’t help us choose our contenders. To do that we have two more steps.

The first is to add all of our weights together and then divide each horses total by that number.

Say whaaaat?

Let me show you what I mean!

Our weights are:

Weights382462100

If we add these together we get…

38 + 24 + 62 + 100 = 224

We divide the total of horse by 224 to get:

Horse NameTotal
Aces Or Better3
Alfadora3
DarkBen2
Himalayan Trail3
Morning Moment1
Runshan4
Shrewd Investor2
Starburst Diamond3
The Hollow Bottom4
Wizards Dust3

The final stage is to convert these numbers back to our fuzzy levels:

Horse NameFuzzy Level
Aces Or BetterAverage
AlfadoraAverage
DarkBenPoor
Himalayan TrailAverage
Morning MomentWeak
RunshanGood
Shrewd InvestorPoor
Starburst DiamondAverage
The Hollow BottomGood
Wizards DustAverage

There are two good horses, five average, two poor and one weak.

From there you can decide on the best way to bet.

In Summary

You now know how you can use fuzzy logic to create a horse racing power rating, and determine which are the strongest runners in the race.

You will need to play with the rating you use, and their weights, to find the best combinations. But once you have them, this process can find you the strongest horses in the race.

Let me know what ratings you’d use in your power rating in the comments below.

Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help bettors become long-term profitable. After writing hundreds of articles I started to build software that contained my personal ratings. The Race Advisor has more factors for UK horse racing than any other site, and we pride ourselves on creating tools and strategies that are unique, and allow you to make a long-term profit without the need for tipsters. You can also check out my personal blog or my personal Instagram account.

9 Comments

  1. By race preference I mean the horses preference on the race type. The factors I used were just examples that can be substituted for whatever you think is most important for the races you are looking at.

  2. “contains all the information necessary to analyse a race” – do you not think it is over analysed sometimes? I know for a fact that when it comes to the Grand National – I analyse like nothing before, win nothing… my mates go for their favourite colours and win loads!!!

    Always the way with the National I would say.

    1. I don’t think that you can over analyse but I do think that you can analyse incorrectly for the particular race you are looking at which could be worse than doing nothing. I would also suggest that it is sometimes possible to over think and that this tends to happen when you haven’t taken a break for a while or changed your focus for a period of time before returning to the problem.

      The Grand National is similar to the Gold Cup and one of the hardest races to analyse due to the high quality of all horses in the race, I would agree with you it is often the way on the National!

  3. HI,
    could you tell me on “racing dossier” what are the filters i can choose to create my power rating?
    SPEED=?
    RACE PREFERENCE=?
    CLASS=?
    FORM=?
    Thanks

    1. It can be sped up a lot if you export the ratings from your RA Pro account, you can then categorise them rapidly in a CSV file. (You could also use DiffTp versions and categorise them automatically based on their difference from top rated percentage of the entire range of ratings in the race). You’d then need a spreadsheet template that took your categories and scored the horses automatically for them. It would enable you to do a full days racing in about half an hour 😉

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