Advice

Stop Looking For The Golden Goose

(Last Updated On: April 21, 2012)

If there is one thing that prevents the majority of punters from making a profit from their betting it is the belief that there must be something that they are not being told. Somebody has found the golden goose and doesn’t want to share it.

This myth is further perpetuated by the sales pages of scammers who show big pictures of nice cars and houses and then tell you that you can make thousands of pounds a month and all you need is their system and £100 to bet with.

That is the golden goose and as much as I would love for it to exist, it simply does not. But the hope of being able to find this magical system that can generate tens of thousands of pounds of income each year in just a few minutes a day from £100 prevents punters from actually learning how to place bets that are going to make them money.

The bottom line is that if something sounds too good to be true, then it probably is!

Can betting make you a lot of money? YES.

Can betting give you freedom from a job? YES.

Can you make a fortune with no money and no experience? NO.

The closes that you can get to the dream of not having to learn how to make profitable bets and having to do minimal work is to use tipsters. But you must use tipsters that are good.

I have some rules for finding tipsters but there is just one which will make sure you are confident in their selections and I am going to share that with you today. But, before we get to that I want to make sure that you understand one very important betting concept. All tipsters will go through upswings and downswings. Think of it like share prices that over the course of the year have high periods and low periods. At the end of the year as long as you have a higher share price than at the beginning then you are happy. The same is true of betting and tipsters.

Is it possible to determine when a tipster is going to have a downswing? NO. But I can guarantee you that if you leave tipsters that are good every time they get a downswing then you will see you bankroll only ever go down!

I know that the reason most people leave tipsters during these periods is because they are unsure about whether they made a good decision in joining them and think they may not be the real thing.

To have confidence in your tipster here is what I suggest you do.

Ask them for a complete list of their results over the last year. Ask them the bankroll that they suggest you use and how much you would be staking on each selection. Once you have this information we are going to completely ignore it for the moment.

Put all of the selections into a spreadsheet along with the date, finish position and odds of the runners. Now calculate how much profit they have made overall. Take this figure and work out how much they have made on average each month.

Next work out how much they made in each quarter of the last year. Ideally each quarter should be in profit even if each month is not. The closer the profit from each quarter are to each other the better. This shows that over a decent period of time they are not very volatile with their selections.

Finally work out what the biggest downswing was during this set of results. I do not mean the lowest figure, I mean the biggest drop that was seen from the previous high point. When you have this I recommend that you double it for a quick way to work out how many units you are going to need in your bankroll to bet on this tipsters horses. It is a bit rough and ready but very effective and will mean that you never get worried about losing your bankroll.

For example, if the biggest downswing was 20 units then the minimum bank you would want to use to bet the selections would be 40 units.

When you find a tipster you are happy with then just go ahead and get 3 months of access if you can. There is absolutely no point in getting 1 months access to betting selections and then deciding they aren’t any good. This is not enough time to determine that. A much better way is to do your research first and then when you are confident put the money aside and go for it over a long enough period. If you have done your research correctly then you should be in profit at the end of the 3 months and can happily look forward to the next 3 months!

Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help bettors become long-term profitable. After writing hundreds of articles I started to build software that contained my personal ratings. The Race Advisor has more factors for UK horse racing than any other site, and we pride ourselves on creating tools and strategies that are unique, and allow you to make a long-term profit without the need for tipsters. You can also check out my personal blog or my personal Instagram account.

4 Comments

  1. Thanks for the sensible advice.
    There are so many systems out there it’s difficult to seperate the wheat from the chaff !
    My advice also would be to either paper trade or use minimum stakes whilst trialing the system.That way no money is lost if the system is all hype and you can increase your stake if you want to confidently continue.
    I also find that discipline is the main key.Once you are confident with the system, STICK to it and do not tamper! Sounds easy but can be hard to apply if you are on a losing run!
    Hope this helps.

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