“do you have any tips for today?”
“which horse is going to win today?”
These are questions I get asked on a daily basis.
You may be aware that I don’t give out horse racing tips.
There is a very good reason for that.
Have you ever met anybody who has made a consistently long-term profit over a period of years from horse racing tips?
In this blog post, I’m going to attempt to unravel the reason that no better make a long-term profit from horse racing tips.
In the process of doing this, I hope that you see that on this route is only going to end up one way for you. And that is not a way which is going to see you profit, or find long-term success.
First thing I want to look at is when you join a tipping service…
“Racing Genius Reveals
Secret Horse Racing Tip Betting System That Makes £31,292“
It looks something like the headline above for most horse racing tipsters!
That’s the time most people join a new tipster service.
Very often, you would have even heard other horse racing tipsters until you see a piece of marketing material which is telling you how well they are performing.
Which is completely logical.
If we think about it, most horse racing bettors are looking for a quick win.
It’s this quick win that tipsters use to their advantage when they are marketing.
Again, this is fair enough. They will promote their service at the time when they think they can get the most customers.
There is nothing wrong with this.
We must be careful not to confuse a tipster who is marketing their recent results correctly and accurately, with the tipster who is making up their results to make them sound good.
These are two very different situations.
I am assuming for the rest of this blog post, that we are talking about a tipster who is marketing their recent results correctly.
He was held the marketing works:
1) The tipster is in a losing streak or downswing, no (or limited) marketing takes place
2) The tipster to get one or two winners, limited marketing begins
3) The tipster hits a winning streak, major marketing campaign starts
At first glance, this all looks as you would expect it. The tipster isn’t promoting their service very heavily while it is losing, when it starts winning, they begin promotion, and when they hit a winning streak they promote heavily.
That makes sense from a business perspective.
But, from a bettor’s perspective, this is a disaster.
And here’s why…
When a tipster knows that they are on a winning streak, it has already been two or three days at the very minimum before they realise it. It could possibly be even as long as one or two weeks.
That means, in a best case scenario, the tipster will begin promoting between 4 to 5 days after the winning streak has started. In a worst case scenario, the tipster will begin promoting 2 ½ to 3 weeks after the winning streak or started.
In betting, our journey is made up of winning streaks and losing streaks. The profit from the winning streak’s need to outweigh the losses from the losing streaks in order for us to make a long-term profit. But, we are always either in a winning streak or a losing streak of some sort.
By the time a tipster begins promoting their service on the back of a winning streak, that winning streak will already be coming to an end.
That’s why you may have found in the past, that every tipping service that you join, you always seem to join it and they start losing.
It’s because you are joining it on the back of a promotion which was sent towards the end of a winning streak, when it hits the realised they were on a winning streak.
The promotion looks great, because the recent results have been excellent.
But you join up, and if you’re lucky, you will get some of the profits from the end of the winning streak. However, as we all know, after a winning streak we get a losing streak.
As you can probably see… you are effectively joining at the beginning of a losing streak, if you join a text to service when they are promoting recent big wins and winning streaks.
After joining, we wonder what has happened and why the Texter has suddenly started losing. The truth is, they haven’t suddenly started losing. They have just come to the end of their winning streak, they are now going into their losing streak, and you have to ride that losing streak out first before you get to the next winning streak.
But most bettors never make it to the next winning streak. They are so disappointed in the results of the tipster in the short term, and they have so little confidence in the tipster, that they aren’t prepared to risk sitting through that losing streak to get a winning streak.
So… we cancel and move onto the next tips disservice who is promoting their current winning streak. Unfortunately, we now know, this is going to repeat itself because we’re going to move into a losing streak, we will cancel this service, and move into the next.
The bottom line is that we stop using the tipster service before we’ve ever really given it a chance to profit.
It’s All In The Mind!
Now that we’ve taken into account the fact that we are going to be joining the services at the worst possible time, we now need to think about the psychology behind why we never allow ourselves to win using them.
This psychology is critical to understanding why tipster services never work for the majority of punters.
If you have any questions on this, please let me know in the comments below.
There is an undeniable fact, the fact that nobody can get away from, a fact that destroys the chances of most bettors from ever making a profit.
The fact is that a 25%, 30%, 35%, or even a 40% strike rate is not good enough, and not high enough for most of us to be able to sustain a long term profit.
A 40% strike rate means losing streaks of 14, 15, 16, and even 17 consecutive losing bets in a row.
Let’s be honest, would you be truly comfortable to lose 17 consecutive bets in a row, and continue betting on the selections from a service that you have just joined?
I know I wouldn’t!
What about if we had 12 consecutive losing bets in a row and then had two or three winners, and I’ve had another eight consecutive losing bets in a row, with another winner, followed by yet another 10 or 11 consecutive losing bets in a row.
How would you feel then?
It will be pretty difficult to believe that the tipster was going to make you a long-term profit.
Of course, they may well be long-term profitable. The problem is actually not so much about whether a tipster is going to be profitable or not, the problem is that we are following selections that don’t suit our own personalities.
The most important thing in profitable betting on horse racing, is to have a strategy or selection process that is based around your own personal risk levels, time available, bankroll, and understanding, or expectation, of what you will achieve and what could happen. Particularly in relation to losing streaks.
This is what lets most horse racing bettors down.
Contrary to popular belief, it is not actually the selection process of finding profitable bets that is the hardest part of long-term winning. It is actually setting our expectations correctly to allow ourselves to win.
Here are the four points where most bettors go wrong…
1) They want to bet on comparatively high odds horses, odds of 5/1 or higher, but still win regularly. There is no deep understanding of the relationship between odds, strike rate and losing streaks.
2) There is no understanding, acceptance or comfort with the length of losing streaks that are going to happen.
3) Unrealistic expectations of a long-term return on investment.
4) Trying to generate more profit by staking larger stakes than the bankroll can support, and significantly increasing the chance of losing the entire bankroll.
Time and again I see bettors losing, when they should be winning, purely because one of these four things is happening.
And it makes me sad. Because I know they could be winning.
After a lot of research, lots of surveys, and a whole heap of testing, I’ve discovered the most bettors who are not yet profitable, need a strike rate over at least 60%, in order to keep the losing streaks at a level with which they are comfortable.
Yet, most will consider a minimum strike rate of 20% as acceptable, and anything above 30% as good.
Most bettors who are not profitable, want to place bets on horses at 5/1 and higher. However, in order to be profitable, they would be far better to focus on place markets or 80/20 bets, on horses with all the 5/1 or lower.
But they don’t feel that the returns are high enough for the effort put in.
Which is the fourth point above. When you consider your return, this must be based on a return on investment, and not on monetary profit. Because if I have a £100 bankroll, I may make a £5 profit in a month. That doesn’t make the strategy bad. It just means I have a small bankroll.
If I had a £10,000 bankroll instead, I would make £500 profit a month.
The monetary profit is directly related to the size of bankroll. It doesn’t determine whether the strategy is good or bad!
This ties directly into understanding losing streaks, and how they relate to strike rate.
With a strike rate of 40%, you could get it 15, 16 or even 17 consecutive losing bets. That means you need to bankroll at least 170 units.
That’s being conservative.
If you wanted to be very safe, you would have a bankroll of 340 units.
Being honest with yourself, if you had a strike rate of 40%, would you currently have bankroll of 340 units to use for it?
Why such a big bankroll?
Because it allows us to bet not just through the losing streaks, but also through the downswings. It allows us to do this, without ever having a concern for losing our bankroll.
When we don’t have a concern that we may lose our bankroll, then we free ourselves psychologically to stick with processes and strategies over weeks and months when they may not be performing very well.
These poor performances are often statistically normal, it is bettors who struggle with them. If we can stop ourselves struggling with them, and use the stats to guide our decisions, then we will begin to win long-term.
over the last 20 years, I have yet to meet a single person who has managed to make a long term profit from horse racing using the selections of a tipster.
By long term, I mean at least 2 to 3 years consecutively.
Generally, joining a tipster service is a bad decision for most horse racing fans.
It begins with the time that you join, which is usually just before a downswing. Combined this with a lack of understanding of the losing streaks, the downswings, the bankroll requirements (here I mean the true bankroll requirements, not just what the tips do uses in their marketing, as that will always be lower than it should be), I long-term return on investment, and a realistic concept of what monetary profit Will be attainable from the bankroll available without risking the entire bankroll.
When you combine all these things, it becomes nearly impossible for anybody to make a profit long-term using a tipster service.
But it’s important to notice, that doesn’t mean the tipster won’t make a long-term profit. It means that bettors will stop using the tipster long before they ever get to see that profit.
I talk here from first hand experience. I’ve done this myself, many times in the past. Have you? Let me know in the comments.
The best horse racing tip in the world is…
Spend the time to understand yourself, your comfortable risk levels, your time available, and build a strategy that suits you, only then will you start to find long term success.