When I was young I used to go to Spain with my grandparents, for my summer holidays.
One of my favourite day trips was to go up into the mountains and do a donkey ride around Mijas.
Back then, I didn’t even know horse racing existed, and if you’d asked me if I thought I could have won a race on the back of the donkey, I would have said… yes!
I was always very optimistic 🙂
Do you think that a donkey could win a race against a racehorse?
Of course not. There’s no way a donkey could compete with racehorses.
But… if you kept running a race pitting one donkey against one racehorse, eventually the donkey would win.
It wouldn’t win because it was the fastest, it would win because the jockey rode badly or the horse fell or tripped before the finish.
The odds would be something like 1,000,000/1 (or similar), but it would eventually happen.
Why am I talking about this?
Because I want to talk about value betting.
It’s the only way you can consistently make money from the races.
And here’s how it works…
You don’t look for the horse that’s going to win the race.
I can already hear you saying that at me down the email line 😉
When you’re looking for value bets, you want to…
Find the horses that are offering value with the most likely chance of winning.
These are the horses you want to bet on. Not because it’s going to win this race or the next race, but because if you placed this bet 100 times, you’d come out with a profit because the odds are higher than they should be.
Let’s take the 15:20 at Lingfield today…
Profit Recall has calculated, through it’s whizzbangwizardry, that the strongest horses are:
Chandresh (31.11% chance of winning)
Eland Ally (15.70% chance of winning)
Presto Boy (13.66% chance of winning)
The odds that Profit Recall suggests for each runner because it tells you what their odds should be, are:
Chandresh @ 3.21
Eland Ally @ 6.37
Presto Boy @ 7.32
The current available odds (and I’m writing this the night before racing, so they will change), are:
Chandresh @ 3.50
Eland Ally @ 6.00
Presto Boy @ 8.50
So, at a glance, we can see that Chandresh and Eland Ally are offering value in their odds.
How would we bet?
Well, in this situation, since the horse we deem has the highest chance of winning is offering value, I’d bet it to win. However, I’d also look at betting Presto Boy each way.
If you want to get access to the ultimate horse racing prediction software…
All the best,
Michael and the Race Advisor team