We’ve taken out four best pundits from the Race Advisor and asked them to give you their thoughts on the greatest race of them all …. the Grand National. Over to them …..
Alex Pepperrel gives us his thoughts via a video –
Andy Newton provides us with all of the stats that we need to make an informed decision –
It doesn’t matter if you are a seasoned horse racing punter, or a recreational better that only dips in and out of betting – the thought of betting on the Grand National – a race with 40 runners in – can often be a very daunting affair.
However – fear not – as with bundles of Grand National trends & stats on offer there really has never been a better time to be a horse racing punter.
You have to go back to 1839 to find the first running of the Grand National – a race that was won by the aptly-named Lottery and since then trying to pick the winner of the race has often be called just that – a lottery!
Therefore, it’s a race with loads of history attached to it and, therefore, over time it’s built up many positive and negatives trends. This is great news for punters as we can now use these past stats to look for the best profiles of past Grand National winners and apply these to the 2018 runners.
After all – ask yourself this – if a certain makeup of a horse has won this tough and demanding race more often than not, then why wouldn’t you want to put history on your side and focus on the horses that fit the best trends – oh, and also put a line through those that don’t?
For example…………………Did you know that the last 7-year-old to win the Grand National was in 1940?
Yet, year-after-year punters will still waste their money betting on horses aged 7.
Ian Hudson give us his selection for the big race –
Horses with experience of the unique fences often run well in the Grand National and Blaklion jumped impeccably in last year’s race. The Nigel Twiston-Davies runner had a great round of jumping when winning the Becher Chase at Aintree in December. The Last Samuri is another leading contender who has taken to the fences.
The National is now more akin to a high-class handicap chase with most horses running off their true mark. As a result, the race is now more open and the traditional method of identifying potential winners is less effective.
The winner of the first Grand National in 1839 was called Lottery but for many years only a small group of runners were potential winners. The weights have now been suppressed which means unexposed horses and novices can win or make the frame.
The National is a handicap which means the horses entered at the first stage are allocated a weight based on ability and collateral form. The minimum weight is 10 stone so any horse deemed not to be good enough to carry that weight runs with more weight than the true mark which is a disadvantage.
John Burke from the well established Eye-Catcher service shares his thoughts –
Now the Grand National is not race to be taken seriously from a betting perspective but it’s a bit of fun and that’s what betting on horses should be all about.
The race has changed in recent years due to changes in the Aintree fences and the handicappers in encouragement of higher class horses running in the race. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that five of the last seven winners of the race carried between 11-00 & 11-6 as class now does seem to come to the fore in the race these days. Now the going look like it will be on the testing side on Saturday so it’s possible that the higher-weighted will be disadvantaged.
What do the recent race trends have to say?
AND… Special Analysis from Michael Wilding!
It’s been a little while since I wrote a blog post, and what better time to do so than on the day of the Grand National.
I’m going to use a combination of the Race Advisor’s tools to make my analysis of the race, beginning with Racing Dossier to narrow down the field.
With so many good runners in the Grand National, I’m going to remove any runner with odds higher than 33/1. That’s not because they can’t win, we know from history that they both can and do. However, because the chances of them winning is significantly lower than others, and we need a way to reduce the field down to a handful of runners to look in details, this is the approach I personally choose.
This takes the number of runners from 40 down to 15. Which begins to make our analysis much more viable.
Next I will remove any runner that has not had a good race in recent months. Of course, the Grand National is a target for a lot of horses, which means that instead of looking for a good race in the last two or three months, I will happily take that back over the last year.
As you can see…
The Race Advisor’s Final Thoughts
With the wealth of information above from our writers, it can be difficult to come to a final conclusion. However, having sifted through all of the information, it would appear that both Blacklion and Ucello Conti are the most tipped from our pundits. At 14/1 and 20/1 respectively, it’s worth having two small each-way bets and we hope you enjoy the race.
Leave us a comment, below to let us know what you’ll be backing 🙂