Fairyhouse’s Easter Festival comes to a dramatic conclusion this Monday, with the Irish Grand National. With a field of 30 runners, this race can’t be analysed in 5 minutes! However, one of the quickest ways to narrow the field is to look at the trends from over the last 15 years.
Our first part of the puzzle then is the Irish National Trends –
- 14 of last 15 winners carried 11-00 or less
- 14 of last 15 winners had run after February 1st
- 16 of last 20 winners between seven and nine-years-old
- 9 of last 11 winners rated between 128 and 137
- 12 of last 15 had between three and six starts that season
- 12 of last 15 winners returned a double-figure price (9 20/1 or more)
- Winning form over three miles
- All Irish winners had previously appeared at Fairyhouse (Only five winning)
- 7 of last 11 had run either at Cheltenham or in a Grade One or Two last time out
- All five novice winners had run at Cheltenham Festival
Looking through the race and eliminating those that don’t meet the above trends, we are left with six horses. Having highlighted these horses when the article was first published, I have now gone through each contender, to see which one fares the best based on form.
Will have a massive challenge ahead of him looking at the stats. He’s neither won over the course, distance or going. However, he has contested and completed a few races that would qualify him for a contest such as this.
Sutton Manor –
He’s won on the going and has placed twice at the course. The distance is a big question mark but the extra 5 furlongs could be no problem if others struggle with the going. He shouldn’t. That makes him a contender based on the stats.
Westerner Point –
Is an interesting one as he’s won over both the course and the going. He failed to fire last time out but returning to a course he’s performed well at, this could be his chance to shine.
Champagne Harmony –
This one can be eliminated straight away. Although he meets most of the trends, he’s failed to make any decent effort on his last four appearances and was pulled up here last time out. Not a contender.
The pick of the trends and having run well at Cheltenham last time out he makes the most appeal. Although he hasn’t he’s untested over the going and the distance, he likes it around here and the trainer is going great guns at the moment. He’s the favourite pick from the current list.
Woods Well –
Is an interesting contender and has performed as well as Westerner Point over both the going and distance. He’s another Elliott trained runner and has to be included in the overall bet.
Of those six, Squouteur raced at Cheltenham last time out. He raced well there for Gordon Elliot and looks the likeliest winner at a best priced 14/1 with most firms.
I’d sided with the trends fitting Squouteur but will now add some of the form analysis to make up my final bet. I have named my bets below and will construct the bet as follows –
Squouteur 14/1 with most firms for an each way bet
Westerner Point 50/1 with most firms for an each way bet
Sutton Manor 40/1 with most firms for an each way bet
A combined forecast bet involving all three for a total of 6 bets.
Let’s assume we were going to bet £50 on the race. I would place £5 each way on the three selections and then a £3 combination forecast (£18 in total) for a total outlay of £48 on the selections.
Let’s hope for a good results and some return for our investment.