It’s been a while since I published a race analysis and I thought today would be a good time to do it. I’m going to be writing this analysis using my Racing Dossier ratings. If you want to join the Racing Dossier then you can do that here.
Before I start with the analysis it’s important to explain the ratings I’m going to be using. I’m the first to admit that they have strange names. This is because I have a lot of ratings and there has to be a way to differentiate them. To do this I use a bunch of shortenings. But, the important thing to look at is the explanation of each rating next to it’s name. This tells you exactly what the rating is telling us so it makes sense on how to use it.
- DSLR – This is the well known Days Since Last Ran.
- DSLGR – A variation on the above but much more powerful, Days Since Last Good Run
- Hrs Win % – The strike rate a horse has achieved in its entire career.
- Contender – A rating which shows us the strongest potential form based contenders. 10 is the best and 1 is the worst, horses without any rating can’t be rated.
- MClSLrTXT – A money class shift from the last race to todays race. UP means the runner is moving up in money class, DOWN means the runner is moving down in money class and SAME means there is no movement.
- ACAEPSCL – The average prize money class this horse has been competitive in.
- AeEClLGR – The horses prize money class for its last good race.
- ACPFPCl – The average form class this horse has been competitive in.
- PFPClGR – The horses form class for its last good race.
- ACSPCL – The average speed class this horse has been competitive in.
- SClGR – The horses speed class for its last good race.
- ACECL – The average earnings class this horse has been competitive in.
- EClGR – The horses earnings class for its last good race.
- SHorPro – A speed projection based on the horses most recent speed figures.
- Speed Regression Lvl – A speed projection using a regressional model.
- Speed Regression Agl – The improvement/decline of speed based on a regressional model.
Now that we’ve got the ratings that we’re going to use, the next thing is to look at the race as an overview. All the images below will be in pop-up boxes, if you click on them you can see them in a large format.
The first thing that I will do is to sort the runners by the DSLGR (Days Since Last Good Race). This allows me to see horses that haven’t had a good race in an extended period of time.
As you can see above I have marked as Eliminations (the horses with a red box on the left) the three runners who haven’t had a good race in over six months. There are two horses, Gabriell’s Lad and Intransgient whose last good races where only slightly past the six month mark and so I have left them in as possibles for now.
Next I’m going to sort the race card by the Contender rating to highlight those that have the strongest form possibility.
As you can see above, I’ve marked these four horses as Contenders (green box on the left hand side) for the moment. We are already beginning to get a possible idea of the runners that could be good performers in this race.
Now, as this is an All Weather race being run over seven furlongs, we want to look at the speed projections. We use a couple of these because it is possible to project the speed using different techniques. What we are looking for are the horses where different techniques agree. To do this I have sorted by each of the three possible ratings and then put them next to each other in the image below.
Doing this we can immediately get some very useful information. We can see straight away that Santefisio is the best in two of the ratings, the Speed Regression Lvl and the Speed Regression Agl. However these two ratings are linked. The Speed Regression Agl shows the level of improvement expected if the horse continues to improve at the same speed it has been doing recently and the Speed Regression Lvl predicts what the rating will be if the improvement takes places at the same speed it has been doing. However, we marked this horse as an Elimination (red box) because it has’t had a good race in 260 days even though it’s last race (DSLR) was only 16 days ago. It’s possible that this runner needs to be considered further however.
Alben Star is very interesting to us. Not yet marked as a Contender (green box) but top rated for SHorPro and second best for the Speed Regression Lvl and Speed Regression Agle. Looking at the DSLGR and DSLR, we can see that his last race was a good race which indicates that this runner could be a strong contender today.
The other two runners worth noting from this side-by-side comparison is Chookie Royale and Bertiwhittle who both are in the top half of the field for all three methods of projecting speed, both are already marked as Contenders.
Next we need to look at the ratings which show us the average level each horse has been competitive. You will notice that next to each competitive rating I have put the rating level that the horse last had a good race in for a direct comparison.
For the ACAEPSCL or the average prize money class a horse has been competitive in we can see that Alben Star is once again the best with Chookie Royale and Santefisio close behind. From these it’s Chookie Royale who race at the highest prize money class level in his last good race, but the difference to the others is small.
The ACPFPCl or the average form class each horse has been competitive in is very close and there isn’t sufficient difference between the runners to be able to use this efficiently in our judgement. Moving on to the ACSPCL or the average speed class each horse has been competitive in, we find that Hasopop is near the top. We can confirm this by seeing that the speed class the last time this horse had a good race (SClGR) was 198, a lot higher than than the other runners. However the last good race we know was 145 days ago and more recent speed figures have been significantly lower giving us cause for concern.
The next best are Chookie Royale, Alben Star, Bertiewhittle and Santefisio. From these it is Bertiewhittle and Alben Star who have been racing at the highest speed class recently and Alben Star who has shown the best improvement and has the highest predicted speed figures from those two.
Lastly I want to sort the race card by Hrs Win % which tells us the career strike rate for each runner.
Alben Star has had the best career strike rate with 29% followed by Chookie Royale and Hasopop at 22%. Santefisio and Bertiwhittle are both at the bottom with 10% and 9% respectively.
Having gone though the card we can see that the strongest contenders in this race look to be Chookie Royale and Alben Star and so we head over to OddsChecker to see what the odds on each runner are currently looking like.
Chookie Royale is the current favourite in the market with the best odds of 5.09 available on Betfair. Alben Star has odds as high as 12 currently available with Bet Victor which looks to be very over-priced.
There are many possible ways to bet this race, you could dutch the runners, do an win bet on Chookie Royale and each-way on Alben Star. Personally I will be going each-way on Alben Star only who looks to be offering value.
If you’ve looked at this race then let me know your thoughts and who you’re betting on by leaving a comment below.