Tips

The Supreme Novices Hurdle

(Last Updated On: March 10, 2014)

It’s the first day of the Cheltenham Festival 2014 and the rest of the week is guaranteed to be filled with edge-of-the-seat excitement. There is fierce competition every day and we have gone through the stats and key trends in detail for each of the fourteen major races.

Every day we will be posting the stats, key trends and analysis for one of the races here. But, you can…

Get an analysis of all fourteen major races here for just £7.

The race that we are going to be looking into on the blog today is the Supreme Novices Hurdle which is being run at 13:30.

Traditionally this is the curtain raiser for the festival, and known for creating the famous Cheltenham roar. The opening race is represented this year by some of the big stables.

First of all let’s take a look at the key trends and past stats for this race.

Past Winners

Supreme Novices Past Winners

Key Trends

 

  • 10/10 winners have won at least 50% of their hurdle starts
  • 10/10 winners have raced in the last 52 days
  • 8/10 winners won last time out
  • 7/10 winners previously contested a graded race (5 won and 2 placed)

At the time of writing the current entries in this race are:

Supreme Novices Entries

It’s important to note that there has only been one winning favourite, and that was 10 years ago in 2004, so the market seems to get this one slightly wrong.

If using the price solely as a guide, we’d be looking for a double figure price. The battle for top spot looks to be between Vatour and Irving, and this will probably be clear on the day.

The past 10 years however, would have us believe we’d be better off opposing the favourite. One that looks to be value would be Wicklow Brave for Willie Mullins. He only falls short on one of the trends and has a string of 1’s beside his form. It took him a while to settle down after a slow pace was set on his latest outing at Punchestown, but got the job done. He should prefer a stronger pace in this race and at his current position in the market looks to be about right for this opening race of Cheltenham 2014.

Let us know who you’re going to be betting in this race by leaving a comment below.

And, there are another two major races today in the Racing Post Arkle and the Festival Handicap Chase. So…

Get an analysis both of those races and all fourteen major races for Cheltenham 2014 here for just £7.

12 Comments

  1. I shall be backing Western Boy whoo fulfils 2 of the stats, but i also have a sneaking feeling for a big outsider in Un Ace.

  2. I shall be backing Western Boy who fulfils 2 of the stats, but i also have a sneaking feeling for a big outsider in Un Ace.

  3. I’ve narrowed it down to The Liquidator, with Irving being the danger, so am pleased to see they are in your trends Michael. I will be going for The Liquidator as he is very good value IMO.

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