Welcome to the Weekly Profit Puller. This is where I’m going to look at various products or services and delve a little deeper into how they work and how best to use them.
Today we are focusing on the UKRN Early Bird. This service has been running for 18 months now and has made nearly 130 points profit in that time to 1 unit stakes. Starting its analysis with trainer stats today we look at how this is done and why today’s selection has been chosen.
Looking through each day’s race cards the service focuses on how many runners and winners a trainer’s had at each course. These runners are then shortlisted using statistics that highlight trainers who’ve historically done well at the track.
Today’s selection from the UKRN Early Bird is trained by Dan Skelton. This trainer has had 11 runners and won with 4 of them. This means he has a 36% strike rate, which is good SR to have.
So, in the first part of analysis they’ve found a successful trainer that does well at the track. Next they need to go through this trainers runners for the day.
Looking at the cards, Skelton has three runners at the track. Looking through the form, we’re wanting to find a horse that will improve in today’s conditions. His runner, Bellenos, fits the bill and runs in the 15:15 Ascot.
Here’s what we would consider to be good in this horse’s form –
“Bellenos ran a decent enough race last time out and managed to find his composure when starting the race with a few mistakes. That was in better company than he finds himself in tomorrow and conditions will be ideal for the 6 year-old. He had a good season last year and has won at this track with soft underfoot so should be able to handle tomorrows conditions. He looks good for a win bet at the current 9/2 as I’ve got him down as a 7/2 shot. ”
The next step is to look through the race card and price up each horse to create our own oddsline or book.
This is a complicated process and is done for UKRN Early Bird by Eddie who’s been pricing up races for over five years.
Once the oddsline has been created, as long as the horse has larger odds in the market than on the oddsline it becomes a selection. These over-priced horses are then provided to the UKRN Early Bird members.
While there are losing streaks, these selections will always make a long-term profit because there is value in the odds. This value can be seen as over 75% of all the selections get gambled on throughout the day and go off at an SP significantly lower than the early odds available.