Welcome to the Weekly Profit Puller. This is where I’m going to look at various products or services and delve a little deeper into how they work and how best to use them.
Today we are focusing on the UKRN Early Bird. This service has been running for 14 months now and has made nearly 120 points profit in that time. Starting its analysis with trainer stats today we look at how this is done and why today’s selection has been chosen.
Looking through each day’s race cards the service focuses on how many runners and winners a trainer’s had at each course. These runners are then shortlisted using statistics that highlight trainers who’ve historically done well at the track.
Today’s selection from the UKRN Early Bird is trained by Sir Mark Prescott. This trainer has a 26% strike rate for a level stakes profit of £5.88p.
So, in the first part of analysis they’ve found a successful trainer that does well at the track, and is in form recently. Next they need to go through this trainers runners for the day.
Looking at the cards, Prescott has one runner. But, looking through the form, they’re wanting to find a horse that will improve in today’s conditions. One of the runners, Athenian, fits the bill and runs in the 3.20 Newmarket.
Here’s what we would consider to be good in this horse’s form –
“Athenian comes here having got her nose in front to win at this course last time out last week. She managed to win having completely fluffed the start and showed good composure to get into the lead and win by half a length. She’s up 4 lbs for that effort but had she got the start right I think she would have won by over 2 lengths. Coming into this then and I think she should improve further and has been well placed. She’s good value at the current 9/1 and I’ll be going in on the nose.”
The next step is to look through the race card and price up each horse to create our own oddsline or book.
This is a complicated process and is done for UKRN Early Bird by Eddie who’s been pricing up races for over five years.
Once the oddsline has been created, as long as the horse has larger odds in the market than on the oddsline it becomes a selection. These over-priced horses are then provided to the UKRN Early Bird members.
While there are losing streaks, these selections will always make a long-term profit because there is value in the odds. This value can be seen as over 75% of all the selections get gambled on throughout the day and go off at an SP significantly lower than the early odds available.