Welcome to the Weekly Profit Puller. This is where I’m going to look at various products or services and delve a little deeper into how they work and how best to use them.
Today we are focusing on the UKRN Early Bird. This service has been running for 14 months now and has made nearly 120 points profit in that time. Starting its analysis with trainer stats today we look at how this is done and why today’s selection has been chosen.
Looking through each day’s race cards the service focuses on how many runners and winners a trainer’s had at each course. These runners are then shortlisted using statistics that highlight trainers who’ve historically done well at the track.
Today’s selection from the UKRN Early Bird is trained by John Gosden. This trainer has had 147 runners and won with 33 of them. This means he has a 22% strike rate, which is good SR to have. Also it’s worth noting that he’s had 6 winners from 38 runners for a SR of 16% we can see that he’s been in form of late.
So, in the first part of analysis they’ve found a successful trainer that does well at the track, and is in form recently. Next they need to go through this trainers runners for the day.
Looking at the cards, Gosden has just one runner. Looking through the form, we’re wanting to find a horse that will improve in today’s conditions. His runner, Allegria, fits the bill and runs in the 4.00 at Doncaster.
Here’s what we would consider to be good in this horse’s form –
“Allegria comes here from a better looking third last time out over this course and distance than first glance would suggest. Finishing a length behind the eventual winner she should come on for that run and looks suitably placed in this race off a mark of 85. That’s only a lb higher than her last run so shouldn’t cause a problem. She might want a bit softer in the ground than the good to firm currently declared but it’s been raining all afternoon up here (I only live 30 miles away from the course) and I know Gosden won’t run her if he feels the ground will be a problem.”
The next step is to look through the race card and price up each horse to create our own oddsline or book.
This is a complicated process and is done for UKRN Early Bird by Eddie who’s been pricing up races for over five years.
Once the oddsline has been created, as long as the horse has larger odds in the market than on the oddsline it becomes a selection. These over-priced horses are then provided to the UKRN Early Bird members.
While there are losing streaks, these selections will always make a long-term profit because there is value in the odds. This value can be seen as over 75% of all the selections get gambled on throughout the day and go off at an SP significantly lower than the early odds available.