Yesterday I said that I’d write the basics of a staking plan which was explained to me by John Jackson, one of the contributors to the SmartSigger magazine.
Don’t worry, I hadn’t forgotten, everything you need to know is below…
Let’s start by looking at the favourite 1% staking plan. This is where you stake 1% of your bankroll on each bet. Your stake will change size each time depending on whether your last bet wins or loses.
We know, from an email I sent a couple of days ago, that as professional bettors we’re going to spend more time in a downswing than an upswing.
With this knowledge, we then know that our 1% stake will increase, often significantly, after we have had a few wins.
What happens after we’ve had a few wins? Yup, we hit a downswing.
But hold up… our stakes are now higher because of our wins!
Which means we are betting higher stakes during a downswing, than we do during an upswing.
I’m sure you can see the issue there!
So this is what we do…
We look at the odds.
Let me explain 🙂
We know that horses with lower odds are going to win more often than horses with higher odds.
That means that the risk we have betting lower odds horses, is less than the risk in betting higher odds horses.
If I gave you a £5 and £50 note, and asked you to place one bet on the chance of heads coming in a coin-toss, and the other on 1 being rolled on dice, you’d almost certainly bet the fiver on the dice roll, and the fifty quid on the coin-toss.
Why? Because you have more chance of winning a coin toss and getting a profit.
And the same goes for racing. If you work out your stats for different odds ranges, then you can assign a stake for each odds range based on the risk associated with betting your selections in that odds range.
This means you stake more money when you have less risk, and less money when you have more risk.
You make more profit and a better return on investment.
Now I’ve only given you the summary here, because quite frankly John has written numerous pages on how to do this and they would never fit into an email. And, he’s also provided spreadsheets to help with the calculations.
It can take a bit of working out in the beginning, but then who wouldn’t want to do that if they’re going to make more money 😉
All the best,
Michael and the Race Advisor team
P.S. These articles are in some of the earliest magazines, go all the way down and look at the first issues after you join.