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Trainer Focus – Which Trainers Are Most Likely to Provide You with Profit in July?

There are many potential ‘angles’ that you can cover when seeking a profit from horse racing. You can look at a variety of criteria including favourites’ performances when dropping down in class, horses returning within seven days, and a specific horse’s results over a certain type of going. It is possible to go through hundreds of pieces of data just to find an edge. 

However, as you know, the more complicated a betting system, the more likely it is to fail. You end up shoehorning criteria to create a rigid yet ill-fitting set of trends. It doesn’t always have to be this difficult! Sometimes, it can pay to try something simpler, like how trainers perform at different times of the year. 

I have covered a similar line of thought before but in this piece, I will specifically look at trainer performances over Flat turf in July to help you get ahead of the bookmakers for the next few weeks, or at least try to!

Going Flat Out with The Racing Post

One of the best things about checking out trainer’s statistics is that you can do it for free on the Racing Post! Also, if you have £20 to spare, you can buy the publication’s Trainers Flat Statistics 2018 guide which includes data such as:

  • Monthly Performances.
  • Race Class.
  • Distance & Race Type.
  • Course Preferences.
  • First Time Out Winners.

It is 240 pages long and also includes data from 2017. The downside is that you generally need to go back longer than a couple of years to find useful information, but it is a good starting point. 

Unfortunately, if you want quick access to historical trainer performance on the Racing Post website, you have to pay for a monthly subscription. Otherwise, you’ll have to do a little legwork, and I show you how to do it here. 

The simplest way to go about this is by Googling the name of a trainer. When I type ‘Roger Varian statistics’ into the search box, the Racing Post’s website should be the first result. You also use FlatStats, Racing UK, Sky Sports or Timeform. The latter is very handy for providing a fast overview of a trainer’s course performance. 

When you check Roger Varian’s record over the last few years, you can see that he doesn’t have a particularly good record in July with losses in three of the last four years. 

Trainer Focus – Which Trainers Are Most Likely to Provide You with Profit in July? 2

I am now going to look at three Flat trainers to see how to get the best out of them in July. All data comes from 2013 – 2017 unless otherwise stated. I encourage you to check out other trainers and statistics to see if you can find others capable of helping you win in July. Remember, just Google the name of a trainer and you’ll find their information at the Racing Post. Look for ‘GB Flat Last 5 Seasons Jan 2014 – Dec 2018’ and click on the ‘Stats’ tab on the right-hand side. Finally, click on ‘Filter’ and choose Display by Month. 

Trainer Focus – Which Trainers Are Most Likely to Provide You with Profit in July? 3

Mark Johnston

Johnston is one of the most prolific trainers in the United Kingdom with almost 6,000 entries in UK Flat racing since January 2014. As it happens, he has a pretty good record in July over the last five seasons.

Bets Wins Strike Rate ROI (BF)
1033 195 18.88% 21.81%

A 225 unit profit and an ROI of almost 22% is an excellent return and even more importantly, you would have earned a profit of 7.96% or more in each of the last five years. You would even have made slight SP profits in four of the five seasons! With over 190 betting opportunities each month, Johnston gives you lots of options. 

He performs even better over handicap races during the last five years although you would have suffered a loss in July 2017. Even so, the overall statistics made impressive reading:

Bets Wins Strike Rate ROI (BF)
704 132 18.75% 35.2%

Up until July 2017, Johnston was a punter’s dream in Class 2 races with a minimum ROI of 41% from 2013 – 2016. Last July was awful however with a win ratio of just 5.13%.

If you’re interested in a few long-shot winners, Johnston at Goodwood in July is worth waiting for. Although he has just 9 wins from 95 races since 2014, it equals a profit of 43.6% although he had no entries in July 2017. 

Andrew Balding

Balding enjoyed his best ever season in terms of prize money after amassing a total of over £2.5 million in 2017. It turns out that he is a pretty good trainer to back in July. Here is his record since 2013. 

Bets Wins Strike Rate ROI (BF)
409 66 16.14% 26.23%

You would have earned a profit of 24% or more in each of the last four seasons by backing Balding’s horses in July. 

Keep a close eye on his non-handicap entries because his record in such races is something special in recent years. 

Bets Wins Strike Rate ROI (BF)
156 30 19.23% 75.91%

After a loss in 2013, you would have earned a profit of at least 43% in the four subsequent seasons. By focusing on Class 4, 5 and 6 non-handicap races only, your profit is boosted yet again.

Bets Wins Strike Rate ROI (BF)
98 22 22.45% 100.05%

With an average of almost 20 runs a month, there is plenty of bank building ammunition here.

Hugo Palmer

When it comes to consistency in July over the Flat, look no further than Hugo Palmer.

Bets Wins Strike Rate ROI (BF)
161 36 22.36% 37.81%

He offers a reasonable strike rate each season and you would have earned a profit of at least 25% in each of the last five years by backing all of Palmer’s mounts in July. You have to go back to 2012 to find his last ‘bad’ July from our perspective and Palmer has been steadily increasing his entries each year. 

From 2011 to 2014, he entered just 35 horses but Palmer entered 49 in July 2016 and 62 in July 2017 which suggests there should be a lot of opportunities. He also performs significantly better in non-handicaps:

Bets Wins Strike Rate ROI (BF)
93 25 26.88% 78.03%

Once again, Palmer has ramped up his number of entries with 66 of them in the last two seasons. 

Finally, your best bet is to focus on Class 4 and 5 non-handicap races.

Bets Wins Strike Rate ROI (BF)
55 19 34.55% 118.29%

Palmer’s strike rate is exceptional so you should avoid lengthy losing streaks.

Final Thoughts on July Trainers

I managed to find three trainers with good July records or in the case of Hugo Palmer, an exceptional one. There are various reasons why trainers excel at specific times of the year and as punters, it is our goal to find out the ‘when’, if not the ‘why’. I advise you to trawl the Racing Post to try and find out a few more trainers capable of helping you profit in July, and other months throughout the year. By doing so, you could earn some extra money for a holiday, or at least build your betting bank. 

Patrick Lynch

Patrick graduated from the National University of Ireland, Galway with an MA in Literature and Publishing but decided he would rather have the freedom of a freelance writer than be stuck in a publishing house all day. He has enjoyed this freedom since 2009 and has written thousands of articles on a variety of topics but sports betting is his passion. While his specialty is finding mismatches in obscure football leagues, he also likes to use his research skills to provide punters with detailed winning strategies in horse racing. You can check out his personal blog on www.lynchthewriter.com or Twitter @pl1982 where he writes content to help small businesses achieve success.

One Comment

  1. Hello R.A. A quick thanks for yesterdays mail “who to watch” 3 wins for David Probert and one for Orion Murphy!! and Davids first win was 8/1 P.G.

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