In a previous article we looked at ways to make profits from certain jockeys. Today, it’s time to put trainers under the microscope. As is the case with top jockeys, punters often make the mistake of backing a horse because it comes from a well-known stable. A basic rule of horse racing betting is to back a stable that’s in form above highly rated trainers.
In the jockeys piece I looked at the overall statistics of the best jockeys in the business and now I’ll do the same with the top trainers. These statistics are from 2003 to the present day.
- Paul Nicholls: 22.64% strike rate, -1122.91 units & -13.74% ROI.
- Willie Mullins: 23.33% strike rate, -961.08 units & -11.67% ROI.
- Nicky Henderson: 22.63% strike rate, -439.46 units & -6.57% ROI.
- Mark Johnston: 15.49% strike rate, -2588.66 units & -16.2% ROI.
- Sir Michael Stoute: 20.22% strike rate, -774.24 units & -12.84% ROI.
All of these trainers are exceptionally good at what they do but as you can see, you won’t get rich by backing them blindly!
In this article, I will focus on Nicky Henderson & Sir Michael Stoute in a bid to find a way of making consistent profit from horses they have trained.
While Henderson does occasionally train horses on the Flat, most of his work is over jumps so let’s first look at his National Hunt record from 2012-2016.
His strike rate of over 23% is pretty good but your bank balance would suffer if you were foolish enough to back all of his horses since 2012. However, I am confident that we can find some good betting angles from this world class trainer. The logical first step is to see how he fares over a handful of different courses in the UK in National Hunt races. Bear in mind that he is renowned for winning big races at Aintree and Cheltenham.
As you can see, Henderson’s horses will net you a nice profit in 4 of the 5 courses above; the exception being Cheltenham. Perhaps the most interesting set of data is that of Doncaster where he enjoys a fantastic strike rate of over 35%.
When it comes to Race Type, you’re better off backing Henderson horses in National Hunt Hurdle races as this table shows.
The statistics speak for themselves really. Henderson absolutely excels in the 4 courses mentioned above and check out that Doncaster strike rate!
One final note on Henderson. Over the last 5 years, blindly backing his entries in Hurdle races in January would see a 24 unit profit and an ROI of over 15%! With just a bit more research you could increase that already impressive ROI still further.
Sir Michael Stoute
Stoute is another trainer that needs no introduction to race lovers. His overall record since 2012 reads as follows:
As expected, blindly backing this top trainer would place a very large hole in your pocket. As was the case with Henderson however, research quickly revealed some ways to make money from Stoute’s hard work!
You probably know what I’m going to do here. That’s right… courses!
He does well at Doncaster but his record at Lingfield on the AW is absolutely fantastic with a fabulous ROI of 73% since 2012. You could focus on that alone but obviously it’s better to see if there are any other profitable angles.
Further research on Race Distance showed that Stoute fares quite well in races of 1m 3f – 1m 4f:
Things get better when you focus solely on his 4YO+ horses over this distance range:
That’s another brilliant set of statistics for the punter. Once again, this shows that profitable criteria can be found with a bit of patience.
For some punters, a specific jockey/trainer pairing causes their eyes to light up and results in them losing track of their senses. Yet if you were to back famed pairings without research, the results could be disappointing. For example, backing the Walsh & Mullins combo since 2003 would see a 30.29% strike rate, -245.5 unit loss & -10.32% ROI.
With this in mind I looked at three jockey/trainer combos with statistics from 2012-2016.
|Nico De Boinville/Nicky Henderson||313||91||29.07%||62.89||20.09%|
|Silvestre De Sousa/Mark Johnston||756||137||18.12%||-51.05||-6.75%|
|Sam Twiston Davies/Paul Nicholls||751||169||22.5%||-98.12||-13.07|
As you can see, the De Boinville/Henderson partnership is a real boon for punters. Even blind backing would give you a handsome 20% ROI. While their record in Chases together is far from stellar (you would lose money), they are a dynamite combination in Hurdle races with an ROI of 31.93%.
The De Sousa/Johnston partnership isn’t a money spinner unless you focus on races where their horse was a 4YO+. Suddenly, things look a lot better as you would end up with a ROI of 37%. Now admittedly, the strike rate is low at 14.29% which means the duo has combined for some high priced winners.
Likewise, the Twiston-Davies/Nicholls partnership doesn’t do much for you at first glance. However, if you focused only on National Hunt Flat races, you would be rewarded with a 48% ROI though they have only raced in 33 of these events since 2012 and only 2 so far this season (the combo won both).
The data I uncovered clearly shows that you can make a substantial profit from trainers once you know what to look for. In addition, the fabled jockey/trainer combination can win you money. Partnerships such as De Boinville and Henderson require less research than ones such as Davies and Nicholls where you need to delve into different race types, age groups and more if you want to get the edge on the bookie. Make no mistake though, it can be done!