A slightly different tact to my usual approach in looking at horse racing today as we look at Aintree and what is the curtain closer on the jumps season. There’s always an air of optimism at this time of the year as we marvel at the spectacle that is the Grand National and then we’re straight into the flat season. New season, the new hope of newfound profits, riches, and plain old just getting it right!
There are seven races to ponder over today and not one of them seems that straight forward. Although can Annie Power get beat?
So of course looking through the card my pick of all the races is the very difficult looking handicap due to be run at 4.40. I like a challenge!
Betfred Red Rum Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (CLASS 1) (5yo+)
Thirteen runners go to post and run just under 2 miles. So first up then is eliminations before getting stuck into what has a decent chance.
As you’ll all know by now, I’m a big fan of statistics and in eliminating horses, I’ll be looking at those who have little or no stats over the going, distance, and ground.
You’ll see in the screenshot below a quick and easy way of eliminating these types of horses –
So this leaves us with the following contenders –
- Aye Well
- Surf And Turf
- Pearls Legend
- Going Concern
- Solar Impulse
- Minella Present
Now it’s important to note that this is a quick way of narrowing the field and an angle in its own right. There will of course be winners from those that we have eliminated but by using the methods that I use we see enough winners to cover those winning eliminations.
So we’ve gone from 13 runners down to 7 now and we need to shorten these further.
Another quick way of doing this is to simply count the number of winners the jockey, trainer, and horse have had over the course, in the last 14 days and over the course, ground, and distance. There’s nothing like taking experience into the mix when trying to find the winner!
I have highlighted the horses that I think stand a chance in this and they will be the three that I will be backing. As I did at Cheltenham I will be dutching them.
If you head over to http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/dutching-calculator
You’ll see I’ve entered the odds as decimals and this gives me the correct stakes to yield the same profit no matter what happens.
So you’ll see that I’ve got a snippet under 6/4 for my three selections and £120 profit should either of them win.
It’s important to note that when trying this simple method we need to be hitting over a 40% strike rate when betting at these types of prices. Some people may prefer to just bet them as singles.
Have a go yourself over the next three days and see if you can find a winner using this simple but effective method.
As we hit the flat season now I will be able to in a fortnight look at how I go about pricing up your everyday racing and more about long term stats that make up my portfolio.