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UKRN Early Bird Selections

Welcome to the second article in a new series of posts that I will be writing every other week. These posts are going to go through a horse race to show you how I go about finding selections. You can get a complete guide to finding your own selections here.

It was actually a no bet for my service today. There were a few qualifiers but I couldn’t find the value so decided upon going with a no bet. Having said that there are still stats to look at and I have outlined one below which I found on the Daily Stat Pack which can be found here.

Trainers

The trainer is the first step in analysing a day’s racing and we need to make sure he meets certain criteria to make the shortlist.

They must have a strike rate of at least 17% from more than 20 runners and show a level stakes profit.

The trainer that is highlighted on the stat pack today is –

Nick Williams

As I only specialise in handicaps we’ll be looking at the above trainer’s handicap races only. This gives us the following shortlist of runners.

  1. After Eight Sivola

Statistics

We then have a jockey on board who has a good strike rate –

Noel Fehily

Next we shortlist the horses further based on statistics from their previous runs. This can be done by looking below both the trainer and the jockey stats.

After Eight Sivola has the following stats:

  • Going – 0%
  • Distance – 40%
  • Course – 100%

This horse looks to be strong and can now be considered a contender.

Contenders

We have now found a horse that has strong trainer, jockey and previous form stats.

16:25 Taunton – After Eight Sivola

As you can see, once this process has been mastered, it’s a very quick way to finding strong contenders for the day’s racing. It also free everyday on the Daily Stat Pack and is published at 8 am every morning.

Form

Now we want to look at the form. So far we’ve used a fairly structured analysis to create our shortlist, but now comes the subjective part and for those that can read the form… this will test your skills!

Once we’ve done this stage the final part is to price up the race to determine whether we’re getting any value from our bet.

I will cover this element of the race in another edition of the UKRN Early Bird so that you can just focus on shortlisting today and not get information overload.

Selections

16:25 Taunton – After Eight Sivola won over this course and distance and in similar conditions but that was back in 2014. He’s also won a very competitive handicap at Fontwell since. He does seem to prefer the good ground but will still act on today’s going. He’s only 4 lb higher than when winning that class 2 at Fontwell so should certainly be thereabouts.

So why did I not tip him last night? It’s all to do with the pricing up and the competition.

I’d priced him up as a 7/1 shot and at the time of analysis he was shortening up into 11/2. There are some good horses in this race and I felt that the competition would be too strong. Having said that if you’re just looking for a winner then he should certainly give you a good run for your money.

If you’d like to get my selections every day then you can join UKRN here.

As always, any questions, then let me know in the comments section below.

Until then, have a great week and happy punting!

Eddie Lloyd

I have been a professional gambler for 3 years now and spend all my days searching for "value" within Horse Racing. I'm also a keen musician and love travelling around the world.

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2 Comments

  1. A nice article Eddie, but when you say that you look for a 17% strike rate over 20 runners, is that at the same track, over the same distance, or over a particular time period? ie What do those figures relate to in specifically?

    1. Hi Ian,

      Personally I look for 17% or above over the track initially. Trainers seem to have a preference for certain tracks and by sending their horses there do better than at other tracks.

      It is a great way of shortlisting races and having found the qualifying trainers we can then start to breakdown other stats as well.

      Patrick’s just published a great article about how this is done here –

      http://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/trainer-horses-knowing-follow/

      Let me know if you have any further questions 🙂

      Eddie

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