Strategies

(UPDATED) MINI BETTING SYSTEM #4: Laying Weak Jockeys

(Last Updated On: December 29, 2020)

Sometimes our mini betting systems need updating. Perhaps one strategy in the portfolio is no longer working, or a website has changed design and is giving more visible insight into the area we were exploiting.

When this happens we pause the strategy, and then go back and see if we can update the method or if it is no longer useable.

This is what has happened to the mini betting system #4. You can see the original approach here.

This mini betting system has now been updated as Nico De Boinville is now showing no advantage.

In theory this is a new mini betting system, however the concepts have stemmed from the original and so we will keep it’s same number, but publish it as an update!

The new rules are below.

You can see all the past mini betting systems here.


What Is A Mini Betting System?

One of the main reasons why people steer clear of mini betting systems is the lack of wagers involved. The casual punters much prefer to have several bets a week, a process that results in several hundred a year. With a micro betting system, you could end up with fewer than 100 wagers per annum.

Rigid adherence is also essential because if you miss a winning bet, it could skew the results of the system far more than one with 100 wagers a month, for example. However, the process of micro betting can yield an immense ROI because it can provide a significant edge.

In general, the better-known a horse racing system, the more likely it is that you’ll lose value over time. The bookmakers tend to ‘catch on’ and price horses accordingly. You end up in a situation where the system still picks the same percentage of winners as before. Alas, with poorer pricing, you begin to lose money. Mini betting systems are less likely to fall prey to this process.

Another advantage is that you can potentially create dozens of them. When you combine six or seven such systems, you suddenly have enough wagers to keep you satisfied. There are caveats, of course, and we always point out the following when creating such systems

  • Make sure your selection is capable of running under the race conditions. For instance, if the going is Heavy, no matter what your system says, it doesn’t make sense to choose a horse that always struggles on such ground!
  • Try to create several systems to diversify your portfolio.
  • Constantly monitor performance to ensure each system is working. Sometimes, the conditions that made the system successful will change. 

The Rules

When creating a mini betting system, it is always best to keep things as simple as possible. The more complicated a system is, the more likely it is to break down because you only need to lose one component.

In this instance, there are just three rules:

  1. Only consider laying horses ridden by the jockeys, Richard Johnson and Sam Twiston-Davies.
  2. Only consider selections they ride in handicap chase races in the UK.
  3. Only consider horses they ride where the SP odds are at a maximum of 5.00

Remember, this system involving laying their runners, for reasons I outline below. 


The Logic

A betting system without logic is one that is unlikely to stand the test of time. In this instance, we take advantage of punters backing big-name jockeys without taking a closer look at the horses. Both Johnson and Twiston-Davies are top jockeys. However, this counts against us when we want to back them because their rides are often overbet.

We flip the script by taking advantage of their low strike rates on reasonably well-backed horses. Handicap chase races are often tricky to call correctly, so it can make sense to lay overrated horses that attract money based on the jockey’s fame. 

We need to keep the odds at 5.00 or less because of the high liability involved. You can lay extremely long odds horses, but all it takes is one or two freak results to ruin your bankroll. Both Johnson and Twiston-Davies have experienced a recent downturn in form, so let’s take advantage while we can!


The Results

Since 2019, this system has provided the following results:

Selections Wins Strike Rate Profit/LossROI (BF)A/E
27822380.22%67.6224.32%0.67

The low A/E is excellent news as it is further proof that there is no value in backing these horses to win.

You would have earned a profit of 67 units in less than two years. At £10 stakes, you would win £670 during this period. Obviously, compounding stakes would likely result in a more significant yield overall. 

You can also lay their horses to place. It has a lower strike rate but still generates reasonable profit. 

Selections Wins Strike Rate Profit/LossROI (BF)A/E
27816258.27%36.2813.05%0.67

The longest winning streak when laying their horses to win is 20! There are four other streaks of 10+ wins. In contrast, the longest losing streak is four. The longest winning streak for place bets is 15, against two losing streaks of four. 

In Summary

This mini betting system takes advantage of people’s propensity to casually back horses based on the jockey. Yes, the rider is important, but they can’t work miracles! By laying their horses to win and place, you would enjoy an extremely high win rate that ensures losing streaks are short.

It is a system specifically for the National Hunt season, so the fact you can get over 100 bets in a year is exceptionally reasonable. Combine it with a couple of other microsystems, and you could enjoy a lucrative spell. 

If you’d like to get the horses for every mini-system in Patrick’s Portfolio found and sent to you each day, you can register at https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/patricksportfolio

Patrick Lynch

Patrick graduated from the National University of Ireland, Galway with an MA in Literature and Publishing but decided he would rather have the freedom of a freelance writer than be stuck in a publishing house all day. He has enjoyed this freedom since 2009 and has written thousands of articles on a variety of topics but sports betting is his passion. While his specialty is finding mismatches in obscure football leagues, he also likes to use his research skills to provide punters with detailed winning strategies in horse racing. You can check out his personal blog on www.lynchthewriter.com or Twitter @pl1982 where he writes content to help small businesses achieve success.

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