Strategies

Van Der Wilding: A Horse Racing Betting Strategy Part 2

In my last post on the Van Der Wilding method, I looked at how I’ve adjusted the original system to find contenders.

The focus of today’s post is how to reduce those contenders into selections using form reading.

To do this I’m going to be using the ratings inside the Racing Dossier to analyse this race.

Form Reading with Racing Dossier

Let’s start with a look at my standard race card I use inside the software.

Screen Shot 2015-11-23 at 09.49.52

There are a few more ratings but we’ll be working across from left to right and will get to them shortly.

The PFPProCl is an estimate of the form class of the race. We want to look for horses that have a PFP and PFPClGR close to this figure but not significantly higher. Horses that have figures significantly higher than the class figure usually indicates that they’re no longer able to perform and are rapidly being put into lower class races to try and get a win.

Looking at the PFPClGR we can see that Elis Eliz and Spring Loaded are both 1510 which shows that their last good race was at a similar class to this race.

The other two runners have slightly lower figures which tells us they need to continue to improve to be competitive in this race.

Looking at the PFP we can see Elis Eliz has a rating of 1513 which is pretty much perfect in this race. Spring Loaded at 1516 is starting to get a bit high and is either an indication that this horse is way better than the other three contenders or is on a bit of losing run and building up to a lay-off.

Next we come to the ACPFPClTD which tells as the average level a horse was competitive at based on form only, and it’s clear that Elis Eliz is way above the others. There are concerns over Magnus Maximus and this is backed up by the ACSPClTD (the average level a horse was competitive at based on speed only).

The picture so far is…

Elis Eliz looks to be the strongest of our contenders. Spring Loaded could either be very strong or heading to a lay-off and Magnus Maximus has some concerns. There is currently little to back-up or scare us off Claim The Roses.

Let’s move onto the Cst10 and Cst6D. These ratings tell us the consistency of the horse over the last ten races and the last six races over the same distance. And it tells us that Spring Loaded seems to have been quite consistent and Magnus Maximus has been the least consistent.

Now we come to five speed ratings. These are SHorPro (projected speed), SHorAv90 (average speed rating in last 90 days), SHorBEAv90 (average speed rating from the best runners in this horses races in last 90 days), SHorAvG (average speed rating on todays going), SHorAvD (average speed rating on todays distance).

All of our contenders have similar projected speed ratings except for Magnus Maximus, but in the last 90 days it’s Elis Eliz who has been putting in the fastest runs and, looking at the SHorBEAv90, racing against the best competition.

However when we look at the horses performance over the ground it’s Magnus Maximus who has clearly been the fastest and put in the strongest performance, with Spring Loaded noticeably poorer on this ground.

The best speed over the distance once again sees Elis Eliz by far the fastest runner.

Once again Claim The Roses has little data which tells us that this runner hasn’t raced in the last 90 days which is a concern and the strength for Elis Eliz increases.

There are just five extra ratings that we want to look at as you can see from the image below:

Screen Shot 2015-11-23 at 09.51.11

Next come two factors which are amongst my favourites, the DSLGR and the DSLW. These stand for Days Since Last Good Race and Days Since Last Win.

Both Elis Eliz and Spring Loaded have had a good race recently, which is a good sign. Magnus Maximus performed well recently too but Claim The Roses has been 92 days since the last good race which is a bit of a concern.

To make matters worse for Claim The Roses we can see that this horse has had 153 days since last winning and this information, combined with what we’ve already learned about this runner, would rule the horse out for me wanting to bet on it.

The last three ratings Hrs Win %, Trainer SR and Jockey SR I use as a last gauge. The Hrs Win % can be used to make sure that the horse wins 15% or more of their races.

Sometimes you will find that one of your contenders wins just 2% or 3% of their races and even if they’re looking strong I remove them as a selection as their win rate is just too low for me to want to place my money on.

If I have a very strong selection I am happy to go down as low as a 10% win rate for the horse but less than that always makes me think very carefully if I want to bet on the runner.

As I’ve said before, I don’t really use the Trainer and Jockey information very much. Personally I prefer to look at the information which relates directly to the horse and the other horses in the race. I have these two ratings on my race card just in case something very obvious stands-out as a warning. Which in this case it doesn’t.

So where are we at…

The Final Horse Racing Selections

Having gone through a form analysis we have discovered that from our contenders:

Elis Eliz: Looks to be the strongest of our contenders and a definite selection.

Spring Loaded: A strong runner but concerns as to whether this horse is at the beginning of rest period and needing a lay-off.

Claim The Roses: Not raced for over 90 days and not won for even longer. A lot of concerns and removed as a potential selection.

Magnus Maximus: Some concerns over ability compared to other contenders but has a very strong preference on the ground conditions.

The odds for these runners were:

Elis Eliz 7/1

Spring Loaded 6/1

Claim The Roses 5/1

Magnus Maximus 5/1

We now need to use our instincts to determine the best way to bet. The more you practice then the better you will get at assessing this.

Immediately you can see that our strongest selection Elis Eliz has the highest odds from our contenders and is higher than expected. Magnus Maximus has comparatively low odds considering our concerns and I wouldn’t be betting on at those odds. Spring Loaded has odds that are expected.

For me I would be sticking with our strongest selection Elis Eliz and with those odds I would be betting each-way.

If you repeat this process a few times a week and get used to using it you will find that your analysis can be done quickly and efficiently and you begin to see profits come from your selections.

You can get access to Racing Dossier ratings here.

Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help punters improve their betting profits and think outside the box with their betting strategies. To date he has written over 450 articles on the site and recently started UK Racing News which has become a leading news site for horse racing in the UK and IRE. Check out my personal blog or my Google+

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