As you can see, there’s a sexy new look in today’s Race Advisor email. Do you like it?
Let us know what you think by hitting the reply button and saying “Love It” or “Not For Me”.
When you’ve done that, today I want to share something with you that’s a bit contrary.
Most punters always look at the best races to find their selections in.
But that’s just making life difficult for you!
After all, the better the quality of race, the better the runners and the better the competition, making it harder to select the horses that really have a stronger chance than the rest.
Where you want to focus is on the low quality races 😉
Whereas high quality runners are very similar and we’re looking for small differences between them to make our selections, poor quality runners have a bigger differences between them.
Which means… it’s much easier to spot the runners that are likely to perform strongly in low quality races.
An example of a low quality race today is the 18:00 at Bath. It’s a Class 5 race which is only paying the winner £2,911.
Looking at our Profit Recall software, which is where we always like to start, we can see that…
The three strongest horses in the race are Pow Wow, Pete So High and Conkering Hero. Profit Recall estimates a chance of 88.11% that one of them will win!
Heck, at the current odds you could simply place a dutch bet on all of them and if one wins make a 21.77% return on investment.
That represents odds of 4.59, when we know it should be closer to 1.15, which is pretty darn good 🙂
However, we can improve our chances using other Race Advisor tools such as Racing Dossier, BSE and Pace Predictor.
Racing Dossier tells us that Pete So High hasn’t had a good race for 165 days, and the Pace Predictor tells us that his running style of Early Presser is not best suited to this race.
It tells us that Pow Wow has been consistently improving, is one of the strongest form horses and wins 40% of his races.
Conquering Hero while good in comparison to the other runners, is not as good as these two.
Then, using BSE, we can confirm the above. Conquering Hero is shown to be a strong performer of the three over All Weather, but today’s racing is on flat where he falls down.
Pete So High also prefers the All Weather and has seen a recent decline in performance.
But… Pow Wow is a steady performer, performs on the flat, likes the ground condition and likes the distance.
For me, I’ll be betting on Pow Wow to win. However, if you prefer lower risk then simply dutch all three horses and get an 88.11% chance to walk away with a profit.
All the best,
The Race Advisor