The very first tipsters selection that we proofed was on the 13th August 2012. That means that we have now been proofing tipsters for just over two years!
I’ve got to be honest, I hadn’t realised it had been that long until I was checking the stats for this article.
In that time we have had 281 tipping services who’ve requested to be proofed by the Race Advisor. Of those 154 are still active and being proofed. You can check them out here.
One of the biggest issues when looking for a tipster is trying to understand what their results mean. There are so many ways to proof that it makes it a nightmare to compare.
Do they use one unit or multiple unit stakes? Do you they use SP, Betfair SP, Advised Odds or Best Odds Guaranteed? What period of time is their promotional figures done over?
And so it goes on.
Well, with two years of proofed tipster results I thought it was time to take a look at who really stood out.
To begin with I think it’s only fair to look at the top ten tipsters in all timeframes to flat one unit stakes and at SP odds.
The first thing to notice is that the only services which have had over 100 winners (which is what I consider the minimum amount to be considered statistically significant) are lay services, and it’s a bit unfair to include these in the SP analysis because they are done to Betfair SP.
From the rest it’s Bookies Enemy No. 1 which is the only service to appear in the top ten for all timeframes. However it is worth noting that this service is quite new and has had only 69 bets proofed so far.
Does this mean that all tipsters are awful?
Anyone who has made a profit to SP is doing pretty well, and those who have made a profit to SP over a year or longer are possibly very good services.
You see the thing is, it’s very easy to get better odds than SP.
Which means that we need to look at different odds types. So, the next odds type we will consider is Betfair SP.
First of all notice how many more services in the top ten have more than 100 winning bets. None in the last thirty days, but then to have 100 winning bets in thirty days would require the kind of turnover that very few people would be comfortable with. So that’s not surprising.
There’s a couple in the last quarter (three months) with this amount of selections, both run by Kieran Ward, and these are also high turnover. To get over the 100 winners in the last quarter they’ve had an average of just over 1000 selections in the last three months, or eleven bets a day.
But when we get to the proofing over longer periods of time we see more and more services meeting this criteria. And, when we look at proofing over longer than a year all but one service has had more than 100 winners.
So what does this mean?
It means that if you are happy with a high turnover service then you can consider those who have more than 100 winners in the last quarter and last six months. But if you aren’t happy placing an average of eleven bets a day then you need to consider the last year or longer.
When considering tipsters selections you should always assume they will have a downswing. It’s not unreasonable for a downswing to last three months, or possibly even four or five.
I know that sounds like a long time. But remember this doesn’t mean they won’t make any profit in that period of time. Rather that they may not reach a new high point in that period of time.
This is not unusual. It’s the nature of betting whether using a tipster or doing it yourself. By focusing on services with more than 100 winners over a year or longer, then you are looking at your long-term betting investment.
What is interesting is The Morning Value Service appears in both the last year and all time top ten. This is interesting because I know Kieran recommends placing to advised odds early in the morning, not Betfair SP which is what we are seeing here. In fact he has said the selections rely on early morning odds for profit, although we can see that they do actually make a profit at Betfair SP as well albeit with a very low ROI.
If you want to be able to place your bets simply to Betfair SP every day, rather than specific bookmakers that have the best odds, then the top ten services here are the ones to consider.
Don’t just consider the one with the most profit. They’ve all made a profit. What we want to consider first is the strike rate.
In the screenshot below I’ve marked all the services that have over a 20% strike rate.
Of these Bet Alchemist stands out as having a very high strike rate of 29% combined with the second highest profit figure to Betfair SP and the best ROI (Return On Investment).
Win Each Way – Each Way Betting is very close behind with a higher strike rate, due to each-way betting instead of win betting, and a 15% ROI.
If you’re looking to minimise your losing streaks then Andy Bell would be the best for you winning an incredible 35% of his bets whilst still making a very healthy 11% ROI to Betfair SP.
Don’t forget that some of these services will advise different levels of staking and we are currently just considering them to flat stakes. Without doing this it is impossible to directly compare them with each other. Once you’ve chosen a service you can determine whether you want to bet their selections to flat stakes or follow their staking plan.
Finally we want to look at the services when using Advised Odds. These are the odds recommended by services which are available when they send the selections out. It will require you to be able to monitor your emails and place your bets as quickly as possible once the selections are received with the recommended bookmaker to prevent the odds from changing.
As expected there are no services which have more than one hundred winners in the last thirty days whereas almost all services have over an All Time period.
The Morning Value Service is placed number one in every time frame for Advised Odds except for the last thirty days where it’s currently second.
That’s pretty impressive!
Of course, you need to be happy with the very high turnover of selections that this service involves and the mindset that goes with that.
We’ll concentrate on the All Time proofing statistics…
Notice that both Andy Bell and Bet Alchemist are still in the top ten to advised odds and of course both have better ROI’s at advised odds. This makes them very strong considerations if you like a high strike rate as they make a good profit to either Betfair SP or Advised Odds.
Lucky 7’s is a new entry at Advised Odds with over a 20% strike rate and a strong 18% ROI.
If you are happy with the losing streaks and increased bankroll requirements of a strike rate less than 20% then Inside Rail – Form Guru and Race Readers both look strong. Again these have both appeared on Advised Odds only and so these should only be considered if you can place your bets each morning with the recommended bookies as soon as the selections have arrived.
The Race Advisor Tipster Proofing is a tool that you can use to find out which tipsters are performing well and have services that are going to be worth joining.
If you are happy with a high-turnover of selections, the mindset that goes with that and are able to place your bets to Advised Odds in the morning, then there is no doubt that The Morning Value Service is for you.
The proofing on the Race Advisor has been put in place to help you determine which services are best suited to you. When choosing a tipster service consider not only the profit made, but also the strike rate to determine if you’re going to be comfortable with the likely losing streaks and bankroll requirement.