When a lot of people initially get into betting, they think it’ll be easy, stick a tenner on the favourite, it’s bound to win! Isn’t it? Well as many of you are aware, that is not quite the case.
There is a statistic floating around that suggests the favourite goes on to win 33% of its races. This is possibly one of the vaguest statistics I’ve heard in my life and incredibly general so when it comes to betting take this with a pinch of salt… A big pinch!
So what’s this article about?
Well we’re going to look at the consequences of back the favourite 100% of the time and then we’ll look a little more in-depth and how you can improve your chances of profiting from backing the favourite. Although the title suggests it is always disastrous, it is in fact only disastrous when you don’t know exactly what you’re doing and how to improve your chances.
Backing the Favourite in EVERY Race
All you have to do is look on Sporting Life at some of the recent races to see how often the favourite is winning. The favourite is shown with a lowercase “f” to make it clear to see how often it is winning. You should notice that it is less common for the favourite to win over other horses.
Backing the favourite will often mean you are backing a horse at odds of no higher than 3.00 and that’s if you’re lucky. You will often have odds of 2.0 to 2.5 which will just about double your money and that is if you win. Even if we take the general statistic of 33% and you double your money on these bets, you will still make a loss overall.
Improving your Chances of Picking Winning Favourites
Of course, there’s a lot of factors that it comes down to as to how well a favourite will run. Has it been running well in the past? What is its competition like? Has it been successful at this track before?
Previous Form – The first thing to pay attention to is the horse’s previous form. Has it run well in its last races? If a horse has been running pretty well then chances are that it will continue to do so. If this is the case then you would consider this horse as a favourite worth backing. Knowing how to pick a horse with good form is essential to your betting.
Other Horses – You now need to look at the other horses in the race. Is it facing tough competition? One of the easiest ways to do this is to look at the price difference between the favourite and the second favourite. If the odds are pretty close, then I would avoid backing this horse to go onto win. If you’re seeing a different of 1.5 or more then chances are it is a clear favourite.
Record at the Track – How well has it run at this track before? Has it run at all at this track? Two questions you should look at answering when deciding on whether to bet on a horse or not. If it has run well and has a good track-record, then consider backing it. If it is new to the track then chances are it won’t perform as well as expected.
You should now be able to improve your chances of picking winning favourites… Favourites that go on to make your profit.