Today I’m going to show you how you can use the top five horses in a horse race to win 81% of races, and make a profit.
You can do this even if:
You’ve never looked at a horse race before.
In this step-by-step case study, I’m going to show you exactly why this works.
What You’re Going To Achieve Today
By the time you’ve finished reading this blog post, you will know the exact steps to find horses that:
- Win 81% of their races
- Make a 3.53% return on investment (ROI)
You will find a race every couple of days, it takes minimal effort, and you can slide it into your other selection processes.
The purpose of this post is to show that finding a profit doesn’t have to be complicated. Wherever you’re reading this from right now, you can find profits from the same place.
These are the steps you need to take…
STEP #1: Why The Top 5 Horses In A Horse Race
When I talk about the top five horses in a race, I mean the best five horses in a race based on odds. Otherwise known as the top five runners in the market.
These horses will be the horses with the shortest (or lowest) odds in the race.
As you can see in the above image, I’ve sorted the race card by the Betfair Odds (BF Odds) and then highlighted the top five in the market.
These horses are super easy to find.
Why are we focusing on these horses?
Because they win 86% of the time.
Pretty amazing. With one rule we know where the winner is going to come from 86% of the time.
If this translated directly into profit then we’d be happy to crack on and everybody would be rich.
Sadly that’s not the case.
Betting on every single one of the top five horses means losing 1% of everything you bet.
In the great scheme of things, that’s not bad. In reality if you went odds hunting you’d probably be able to make a small profit without doing anything else.
But it’s going to be a lot of work, betting on a lot of horses, and the profit is probably not going to be worth the trouble.
So it’s best we look into something else…
STEP #2: Race Types Broken Down
Our first step is to check how these stats hold up across different race types. I’m only going to be focusing on the race types that have significant volume of races for the purposes of this case study.
Chase Turf Results
Flat Turf Results
Hurdle Turf Results
All Weather Results
This data has been taken from 2018 to the current date, and breaking it down by race types shows us something very interesting.
There’s no real difference in strike rates, but three of the race types make a small loss, and one makes a small profit.
This doesn’t mean we wouldn’t be able to make a profit from the other three race types using the top five in the market. A 2% or 3% loss is very small, and shouldn’t be that hard to overcome, particularly when you’ve got an a strike rate of over 85%.
But… it makes sense to start by focusing on the race type where there’s a base profit.
In this case that means All Weather racing.
STEP #3: Don’t Forget To Do This!
Up until now we’ve included all races in these figures. That includes races with less than five runners.
It’s very unlikely we’ll be making any profit in these races, so we’ll remove any race that has less than seven runners.
This changes the results to…
Still a profit, but not quite what we were hoping for!
But that means races with less than 7 runners in have achieved…
As you can see we’re now finding the winner in almost every race, and making a 9% ROI.
We’re winning in almost every race because we’re betting on five horses, and the maximum number of runners has been set as six.
At first glance it looks like the holy grail.
But… unfortunately… it is a bit deceiving.
Let’s remove every horse which has odds of less than 29/1.
And now you can see the problem. Pretty much all the profit is coming from rank outsiders.
Sadly it gets worse…
The profits come from just 16 horses, with a 3% strike rate, meaning they will be completely unreliable in terms of future betting.
Which pathway do we follow?
Before we make that decision we should check the results of races with more than seven runners, for horses with odds of no more than 29/1.
Not very promising.
This leaves us with just one possible route… which I look at in step #4.
So far we are focusing on:
- Horses in the top five of the market
- All Weather racing
- Races with less than seven runners
- Odds of 29/1 or less
STEP #4: Looking Into The Distance
There are generally considered three race distances:
But I like to add in a fourth… 7 furlongs. This race distance isn’t a sprint, and it isn’t really a medium distance race, so we’ll add it into it’s own group!
Here’s how they look…
Sprint Distance Race Results
7 Furlong Race Results
Medium Distance Race Results
Long Distance Race Results
Now we see a very clear pattern, it’s those seven furlong specialists that are making the profits!
Within this race range, I included all races up to nine furlongs, which is where our middle distance race group would start.
WHAT HAPPENS NOW?
Most of the things you need to do to create a long-term profit from horse racing are about mindset.
When you have the right tools, finding horses that make a profit isn’t as hard as some will make you believe.
Knowing what to do with them is critical, and something we focus on heavily inside Race Advisor Pro.
Profitable horse racing betting is about knowing where to focus your time and energy.
The horses that are found using the criteria:
- All Weather racing
- Less than seven runners
- Top five in the market
- 7 furlong to 9 furlong races
- Odds no higher than 29/1
Make a profit. A 3.53% return on investment.
They do this using no more information than the market price.
There will be roughly one race that meets the criteria every two days.
Where do you take this from here. I would suggest that you use these horses as contenders. That you look into them in more detail. Doing so will give you the edge to make a long-term profit from them. No more research, no more tools, you can take these and make a profit.
Race Advisor Pro members should apply our FMFR method to these runners. That’s all you need to do.
Finding horse racing success doesn’t have to be difficult, it doesn’t have to complicated. If we take a step back and look at why we’re not winning, the answer usually lies in the decisions we’ve made, it is in the bets we’ve placed without careful consideration, it’s happening when we feel we’re owed a win.
In summary, losing is most often tied to our personal emotions. If we can get control of them, the rest is simple, as you can see above.
Please let me know, by leaving a comment, if you’re going to follow these runners.